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The CCP Coronavirus

This is a discussion topic for posting info and questions about the CCP Coronavirus. Check back regularly for updates and share important info. This is a serious pandemic and we all need to educate ourselves and stay home. Don't go out for non-essential reasons. A lot of people are going to die, and our behavior today (March 15, 2020) will still dramatically affect how many die.

March 23 update: Although diseases are commonly named after locations, I edited the post title from The Wuhan Coronavirus to The CCP Coronavirus to reflect the fact that the fault lies with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), not the city of Wuhan.

Below is the original post.


I'm not a medical expert and I haven't given my full attention to the Wuhan Coronavirus. But I've looked into it some and I have a few guesses, below. Summary: It's a real danger, which might kill millions, and China is lying about containment.

  • Coronavirus is spreading in mainland China outside of Hubei province.
  • The Chinese government is lying heavily.
  • China reports fake coronavirus data.
  • Experts could and should have known the above points a month ago.
  • There's a significant chance, let's say >= 20%, that coronavirus kills a lot of people, let's say over a million.
  • If the virus infects 25% of the world and has a 1% mortality rate, that's 19 million dead. The 25% and 1% figures are both plausible. Worse is not unreasonable.
  • Things might not turn out all that bad, but people ought to be concerned and take it seriously.
  • The virus is a bigger threat than the government measures to contain the virus.
  • Many measures to stop or slow the virus' spread are being done too late to have a large benefit.
  • Many people with coronavirus show no symptoms, but can still be contagious.
  • Individual quarantine measures are frequently inadequate. Self-quarantined persons are told e.g. to keep their distance from their spouse ... who can still live with them and go to the grocery store.
  • A 14 day quarantine is inadequate for a person who is around healthy family members or roommates. E.g. they could infect a family member on day 6. Then the quarantine ends too soon (8 days, not 14) after that person got sick.
  • Although we may still slow the spread down, we can't realistically expect to stop the virus from spreading to most of the world. It may not spread that much, but if it doesn't, that will be luck more than skill. We don't know all the details of the virus and how good it is at spreading. Also, the potential exception would be if someone comes up with a major medical breakthrough to protect us.
  • Politicians and others still going around shaking the hands of dozens of people are fools or bastards.
  • The people mocking those who do "social distancing" like not touching other people (e.g. no handshakes) are second-handers disconnected from reality, and they will be responsible for many deaths.
  • Literal life and death threats are inadequate for most social-reality-oriented persons to start focusing on facts, science, details and logic. They can't snap out of it and will continue to be dangerously careless, and to make decisions based on e.g. not wanting to show weakness. People deal with situations by social dynamics like acting tough instead of fearful, and not wanting to be reactive or high effort, and it doesn't matter if coronavirus has no social behavior and cannot act on social interpretations. People will e.g. stock up on supplies if and when other people stock up, and do whatever they think others are doing; they don't want to be different and that matters more to them than their lives.

Elliot Temple on March 9, 2020

Messages (30 of 316) (Show All Comments)

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

Article explains a good reason for the toilet paper shortage that isn't hoarding or panic buying.

> In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.

> Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant.

Very good point about people using more TP at home and it's non-trivial to get TP for businesses onto retail store shelves and into the hands of consumers. I hadn't thought of that.


curi at 11:13 AM on April 2, 2020 | #16231 | reply | quote

#16231 More explanation:

> Talk to anyone in the industry, and they’ll tell you the toilet paper made for the commercial market is a fundamentally different product from the toilet paper you buy in the store. It comes in huge rolls, too big to fit on most home dispensers. The paper itself is thinner and more utilitarian. It comes individually wrapped and is shipped on huge pallets, rather than in brightly branded packs of six or 12.

Consumer and commercial TP sometimes doesn't even come from the same mills. It's a much bigger issue than just getting it delivered to different places.


curi at 11:16 AM on April 2, 2020 | #16232 | reply | quote

Regarding stores running out of stuff, I'm not sure how much that would happen just from demand going up a bit from people stocking up a bit extra and trying to do fewer trips to the store. This applies e.g. to food.

Suppose people are currently buying 10% more food on average. That seems pretty reasonable.

Maybe that alone is enuf to empty grocery store shelves! I'm not sure. idk how much extra stuff stores have compared to purchase flow.

like if ppl buy 100k (avg) of stuff per day from a particular grocery store normally, and now they are buying 110k/day (avg), and the store has 200k of stuff btwn the floor and backroom and is getting 100k/day of resupply on avg ... then it's empty after 20 days. I don't know what numbers are realistic.


curi at 11:22 AM on April 2, 2020 | #16233 | reply | quote

#16231 A similar issue to the TP article:

https://twitter.com/jmhredsox/status/1245771419826282496

> Milk purchases are being rationed at supermarkets right now, and at the same time dairy companies are hurting because schools aren't buying.


curi at 11:26 AM on April 2, 2020 | #16234 | reply | quote

https://www.cbc.ca/news/covid-19/italy-covid-19-outbreak-lessons-1.5517520

> In early March, as the number of infected was doubling every few days, authorities [in Italy] allowed overwhelmed hospitals to transfer those who tested positive but weren't gravely ill into assisted-living facilities for the elderly.

wtf. sending infected ppl to where a bunch of high-risk elderly ppl are? on purpose?


curi at 12:20 PM on April 2, 2020 | #16236 | reply | quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QpKJHyTtNc

> How much coronavirus is needed to infect everyone on Earth?

*Great video*. Demonstrates how easily graphite sticks to your hands and how hard to wash off it is (as a comparison to viruses). Uses a microscope to show it on fingers.

At the end, he points out *not touching stuff* is more important than hand washing.


curi at 3:26 PM on April 2, 2020 | #16240 | reply | quote

https://twitter.com/stucchio/status/1245896648208850946

> In case anyone thinks Vox was merely being stupid, apparently Yglesias knew Coronachan was coming and prepped all the while mocking the others who were prepping.

As you can see at the link, he ordered masks in February.


curi at 7:13 PM on April 2, 2020 | #16241 | reply | quote

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/30/coronavirus-social-distancing-mit-researcher-lydia-bourouiba-27-feet/5091526002/

> 6 feet enough for social distancing? MIT researcher says droplets carrying coronavirus can travel up to 27 feet

I did not investigate the quality of the research.


curi at 9:59 PM on April 2, 2020 | #16242 | reply | quote

Have been retweeting more CCP Virus stuff on Twitter today, as usual.

https://twitter.com/curi42


curi at 10:28 PM on April 2, 2020 | #16243 | reply | quote

Great Tucker commentary on Chinese propaganda, WHO lies, biased journalists https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-propaganda-war-china-coronavirus


Anonymous at 5:57 AM on April 3, 2020 | #16246 | reply | quote

https://www.jewishagency.org/sharanskys-advice-for-people-in-quarantine/

Gulag-tested tips from Sharansky for getting through quarantine/isolation.

I liked tip 2.


curi at 7:09 PM on April 3, 2020 | #16253 | reply | quote

https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4695

Very good that Scott Aaronson not only changed his mind on coronavius and started taking it seriously, but is self-aware enough to be reflecting on why he was wrong and why he's been too trusting of the authorities in general. He's considering how he should change as a person/thinker.

This is something of an intellectual post-mortem – those are very important – and it also contains some good comments on the pandemic.


curi at 1:15 AM on April 5, 2020 | #16264 | reply | quote

#16264 A reply to SA's post:

> I think a substantial part of this is that many of us have a somewhat rational fear of overreacting and being judged for it. For example I was at a faculty lunch in mid February, and I said that I’d heard some discussion of the APS March meeting being cancelled and I thought this was a good idea. Several people laughed, and the department chair said in front of the whole department that I was “fear-mongering”.


curi at 1:18 AM on April 5, 2020 | #16266 | reply | quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFftsn6izic

> China Hiding MASSIVE Death Toll from Coronavirus

Good vid. I found and subscribed to this channel a couple weeks ago. But I forgot to switch from the default "personalized" notifications to "all" so I got notified of ZERO of their new videos :( Saw this one linked in SA's comments. Hopefully SA notices it and stops being egregiously wrong about China.

Like really, really wrong. SA wrote this in comments:

https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4695

> marxbro #19: I’m prepared to make one of the largest concessions that I’ve ever made to Marxism about anything. I think that right now, a command-and-control system like China’s would be preferable to what we have in the US.

The video was specifically linked to counter this. So was another video and there was explanatory text. SA responded to 3 other comments from the same guy, both before and after, but didn't respond regarding this china stuff.


curi at 1:55 AM on April 5, 2020 | #16271 | reply | quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejlbCmRJMW4

> 'All our ICU patients are in their 50s or younger' - frontline Welsh doctor recovered from virus


curi at 2:06 AM on April 5, 2020 | #16272 | reply | quote

Just retweeted lots more stuff:

https://twitter.com/curi42

Tweets continue to be largely related to CCP Virus.


curi at 9:51 AM on April 5, 2020 | #16274 | reply | quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/

Another quarantined subreddit. jfc.


curi at 9:25 PM on April 5, 2020 | #16280 | reply | quote

https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/2020/04/03/msu-michigan-state-university-baking-masks-covid-19/5117840002/

> They use simple commercial ovens, like those available in food processing facilities around the country. The heating just requires a bit of fine tuning, Dwyer said.

> Beauchamp warned that the decontamination process should not be tried at home.

“The process we’re using, we’re not going to sterilize masks and then go back to cooking food,” he said. “You want to keep those processes separate. The risk is you contaminate the oven.”


nikluk at 12:02 AM on April 6, 2020 | #16283 | reply | quote

Correcting dropped quote. This should have been a quote as well in #16283:

> “The process we’re using, we’re not going to sterilize masks and then go back to cooking food,” he said. “You want to keep those processes separate. The risk is you contaminate the oven.”


nikluk at 12:03 AM on April 6, 2020 | #16284 | reply | quote

curi at 7:58 AM on April 6, 2020 | #16285 | reply | quote

I was told by someone that works as a nurse in SWE. Today they were sent on ICU training. They filled a big gathering room with healthcare ppl - like to the brim. No masks. Filled elevators with as many as would fit. No masks.

This was exclusively trained hospital personell. No one gives a fuk here it seems … This was at one of the biggest hospital in SWE.

Masks don’t work (unless you’re a dr apparently). covid spreading in elderly homes and on the question if masks and safety equipment should be given to those working with the elderly gov said “no. masks do not help. If you think that helps you’re way off. It’s too complex.”

It’s somewhat of a bizzaro world here.


Anonymous at 1:45 PM on April 6, 2020 | #16289 | reply | quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeMPB3yqrrI

Vid about Chinese propaganda in Europe, pretending to be a friend and savior while the EU doesn't help. Lies. The EU is helping European countries, China is just getting more publicity while doing a worse job (e.g. defective tests and "gifts" you have to pay for).


curi at 2:15 PM on April 6, 2020 | #16290 | reply | quote

Proper glove technique vid. So important! https://twitter.com/gatienmc/status/1247203514838810628?s=21


Justin Mallone at 5:11 PM on April 6, 2020 | #16294 | reply | quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg5budPRY1Q

> Full movie: ‘Claws of the Red Dragon’ exposes connection between Huawei and CCP | China in Focus

Steve Bannon was an executive producer. I enjoyed it.


curi at 8:14 PM on April 6, 2020 | #16295 | reply | quote

https://www.fda.gov/food/food-safety-during-emergencies/food-safety-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19 :

> Currently there is no evidence of food or food packaging being associated with transmission of COVID-19.

This is stupid. They are basically discouraging people from sanitizing their groceries because we don't yet have any reports of people getting it from food packaging? But we don't KNOW where people are

getting it. We have no idea. We don't even know who all has it. There were lots of cases where they didn't know where someone got it, and then they stopped even trying to figure out where people got it

They have already SAID that you can touch infected surfaces then touch your face and that could be a problem

they say to wash your hands, not touch your face

Grocery stores are full of other people, who touch food, talk on it, cough or sneeze near it - even if they are trying not to

People touch their faces then touch packages on grocery store shelves and they don't take all the packages they touch

it is fucking absurd to reassure people that food packaging is safe

Touching something that was sitting on a grocery store shelf is the same as touching any other surface in the grocery store

you need to be cautious and not touch your face after you've touched public surfaces and make sure to wash your hands

bringing packages into your house is basically bringing public surfaces into your house

you should be cautious with them and decontaminate them in some way

Maybe that isn't necessary - maybe we will learn that it somehow doesn't end up on public surfaces or doesn't live as long as we thought

But just not knowing of any cases of it happening is just... it's fucking negligently reckless and endangering people's lives to tell them that they don't have to worry about it just because we don't have any cases of it having happened

And it's so confusing to people

they say we have "no evidence" of it happening

well, have the looked?

did they do experiments?

have they TRIED to make it happen and see if it could happen?

No?

They literally haven't even tried to get any evidence about whether or not this is a possible transmission route

the evidence we DO have is that it DOES live on surfaces

and that there are amounts that can still be detected on cardboard until about 24 hours later, and on plastics at least 3 days later

and that is what food packaging is made of

The WHO, the FDA, the CDC, and the Canadian health authorities (and many other countries health authorities that I just don't have knowledge of) have all been just grossly negligent and reckless and are responsible for at least thousands of deaths. I don't know how many deaths they will end up being responsible for, or how many people would have died if they had acted better from the beginning

Of course the CCP is responsible for a lot of this

But I didn't expect that much from them. I expected more from US & Canadian health authorities. And it's not like my opinion of them was even very high in the first place

I just didn't expect them to contribute this much to the deaths of their citizens & the overwhelm of their health care systems

(Source: https://discordapp.com/channels/304082867384745994/687801558083436575/697023720841019412)


Ingracke on discord at 11:01 AM on April 7, 2020 | #16299 | reply | quote

#16299

> But I didn't expect that much from them. I expected more from US & Canadian health authorities. And it's not like my opinion of them was even very high in the first place

they don't have a "serious" mode where they suddenly act competent, organize, smart, logical, fact-based, etc. that doesn't exist. they never flip a switch and treat ANYTHING WHATSOEVER like your or my vision of real life and actually trying when it actually matters. the way they act normally is how they do ALL OF LIFE.

the left has spent decades purging all the competent ppl out of government

so when you see the government full of incompetence for non-pandemic stuff ... that is in fact representative.

when the CDC cares more diversity, they don't ALSO have a team of smart ppl doing pandemic stuff right. the diversity stuff is representative.

i don't know how much competence is left in the military. there have been major efforts to destroy it too but most of the news stories about those are relatively superficial issues that do limited damage instead of destroying the core.

though some of them involving fucking with training and education. the more ppl go thru a PC west point ... they could ruin everything in a few decades.

the rest of the govt is broadly much less resilient than the military. changes faster. more open to political appointees. SCOTUS and some courts stuff is slow to break but has been going on a long time.

[Source: https://discordapp.com/channels/304082867384745994/687801558083436575/697104239268462636]


curi on discord at 11:03 AM on April 7, 2020 | #16300 | reply | quote

#16299

>> Currently there is no evidence of food or food packaging being associated with transmission of COVID-19.

> This is stupid. They are basically discouraging people from sanitizing their groceries because we don't yet have any reports of people getting it from food packaging? But we don't KNOW where people are getting it. We have no idea. We don't even know who all has it. There were lots of cases where they didn't know where someone got it, and then they stopped even trying to figure out where people got it

we know a good explanation of how viruses work that explains how they can stick to surfaces, including food packages, stay there for days, then get on your hands, etc. they can travel via sticking to things as well as via air.

so whenever you name a new surface, the default is: of course is can get on there and be a threat.

just like all the other surfaces

food packaging is literally made out of a lot of the same types of molecules that we actually have tested, too. like plastic or paper.

you saw thunderf00t video with graphite. virus sticks to your hands better than that and is harder to wash off...

imagine if you dusted a grocery store shelf with graphite

or if u dusted some ppl's hands with graphites then they went around grocery store touching stuff

will u end up with graphite on ur hands when u shop?

it's not that hard to imagine the answer, right?

and assume the graphite is invisible so ppl don't realize they're doing it. or imagine blind ppl

THAT HAS BEEN TESTED

there is a mythbusters vid

with some kinda invisible ink thing running out the guy's nose during a dinner party

and then they show it with UV light after

[Source: https://discordapp.com/channels/304082867384745994/687801558083436575/697116956930867232]


curi on discord at 11:06 AM on April 7, 2020 | #16301 | reply | quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le_rfTdayLs

> 1st documentary movie on the origin of CCP virus, Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus


curi at 10:00 PM on April 7, 2020 | #16302 | reply | quote

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