curi blog discussion Explanations for the curious en-us The YouTube Channel That Never Happened Alisa Deplatforming and Fraud
> On October 18, 2019, the YouTube channel Red Ice TV was erased. According to the Southern Poverty Law Center, Red Ice TV is a white nationalist hate site, promoting racist views. At the time of “cancelation,” Red Ice TV had 334,000 subscribers and its videos had been viewed nearly 50 million times.

That's a decent number of views.

The article talks about how "leftist activists use “mass flagging campaigns” to take down conservative online platforms":

> “What online activists do is post something on Reddit or a ‘discord server’ which is an encrypted online messaging app,” he said, “these mass flagging campaigns will originate from activists using these forums to say ‘all of you go and flag this channel.’” When the platform administrators receive a high volume of complaints, they suppress or erase the channel.
> There is no similar sort of online attack mob operating on the Right to silence left-wing voices, and these grassroots online flash mobs have become highly effective at shutting down conservatives online. In the case of sites without large fan bases that can raise objections, the power of the mob to erase is near absolute, and nobody knows how many of these smaller sites are gone as a result. In Red Ice’s case, it didn’t matter that thousands of their fans objected.

The article talks about the simultaneous deplatforming of InfoWars by multiple social media sites:

> InfoWars offers an important example. In November 2016 InfoWars attracted 125 million views.... For the first time, the major online platforms coordinated their efforts. Within a few days in early August 2018, InfoWars was expelled from Apple podcasts, Facebook, Spotify, and YouTube. On September 6, Twitter followed suit. On September 8, Apple banned the InfoWars app from its App Store. Jones was virtually erased. He had 2.4 million YouTube subscribers, all gone; 830,000 Twitter followers, purged; his Apple podcast archives were deleted; his Facebook page, with 2.5 million followers, wiped out.

It talks about the deplatforming of Milo Yiannopoulos and Sargon of Akkad as well as a left-winger named Carey Wedler who was been deplatformed:

> Carey Wedler ... has, so far, hung onto her YouTube channel, but was recently banned from Facebook and Twitter. Wedler is a *left*-leaning critic of the mainstream media and an outspoken opponent of America’s so-called endless wars.

There's a lot more. The whole article is over 7,000 words.]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 21:22:59 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Full movie: ‘Claws of the Red Dragon’ exposes connection between Huawei and CCP | China in Focus

Steve Bannon was an executive producer. I enjoyed it.]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 20:14:36 +0000
Justin Mallone The CCP Coronavirus Mon, 06 Apr 2020 17:11:47 +0000 curi Stop Using Google Search
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 14:53:23 +0000
curi Gaming Discussion
I like Asmongold commentary on other videos. You get extra bonus stuff compared to just watching the original vid. + his chat reactions + he finds some pretty good stuff to watch.]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 14:51:24 +0000
Anonymous Stop Using Google Search Mon, 06 Apr 2020 14:38:12 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
Vid about Chinese propaganda in Europe, pretending to be a friend and savior while the EU doesn't help. Lies. The EU is helping European countries, China is just getting more publicity while doing a worse job (e.g. defective tests and "gifts" you have to pay for).]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 14:15:33 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus This was exclusively trained hospital personell. No one gives a fuk here it seems … This was at one of the biggest hospital in SWE.

Masks don’t work (unless you’re a dr apparently). covid spreading in elderly homes and on the question if masks and safety equipment should be given to those working with the elderly gov said “no. masks do not help. If you think that helps you’re way off. It’s too complex.”

It’s somewhat of a bizzaro world here.]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 13:45:46 +0000
SWE data on covid nikluk The CCP Coronavirus Mon, 06 Apr 2020 13:30:01 +0000 Anonymous Stop Using Google Search
Youtube recommendations are even worse. The old way that was possibly keyword linking was more useful than whatever this seemingly 'AI' algorithm is trying to do. 98/100 chance a recommended video is unwanted and just a video I've watched before.

Haven't used google search as primary engine for years.]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 12:48:47 +0000
curi Social Reality and Real Reality
Short article. Read it then consider: the way the media normally acts, which they are still doing during a pandemic, is to speak in socially convenient ways while not knowing, thinking or caring about real reality. Which they assume generally doesn't matter much: real reality outcomes are often moderate or debatable or come in the distance future (unlike the pandemic which is extreme, clear and fast).

Social reality, by contrast, often has extreme consequences within a few hours. Maybe that's a key reason why most people are much more responsive to social reality.]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 08:01:15 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

patio11 is replying to pg's short new article:]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 07:58:40 +0000
nikluk The CCP Coronavirus
> “The process we’re using, we’re not going to sterilize masks and then go back to cooking food,” he said. “You want to keep those processes separate. The risk is you contaminate the oven.”]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 00:03:39 +0000
nikluk The CCP Coronavirus
> They use simple commercial ovens, like those available in food processing facilities around the country. The heating just requires a bit of fine tuning, Dwyer said.

> Beauchamp warned that the decontamination process should not be tried at home.
“The process we’re using, we’re not going to sterilize masks and then go back to cooking food,” he said. “You want to keep those processes separate. The risk is you contaminate the oven.”]]>
Mon, 06 Apr 2020 00:02:06 +0000
nikluk Fallible Ideas Learning Plan]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2020 21:57:56 +0000 nikluk Stop Using Google Search
I have tested Brave for about two months now. I like it. I use it on my computer, iPhone and iPad. I wrote some about it here:]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 21:55:29 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Another quarantined subreddit. jfc.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 21:25:19 +0000
Anonymous Logan Chipkin from Four Strands is Violating My Trademark Rights]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 18:05:58 +0000
Anonymous format shmormat]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 14:19:04 +0000
Mainstream media double standards: attack conservatives & Christians, defer to progressives and adherents of other religions Alisa Deplatforming and Fraud
> Since the day [Pence] was picked as VP in 2016, the media has never missed an opportunity to mock him for being an evangelical, born-again Christian.
> You might be thinking, but wait — isn’t making fun of people for their religious beliefs politically incorrect? For the most part, yes. But there is one major exception.
> Religious intolerance is a big no-no in 2020, unless said religion has anything to do with Christianity.
> In which case, mocking isn’t just acceptable — it is encouraged.
> For instance, a few months before the #MeToo movement took center stage, the mainstream media got a real kick out of Mike Pence’s rule that he never dines with a woman alone without his wife present.
> The headlines from the mainstream media displayed complete revulsion for Pence, the archaic sexist weirdo.
> “Mike Pence doesn’t eat alone with women. That speaks volumes” (The Guardian)
> “Vice President Pence’s ‘never dine alone with a woman’ rule isn’t honorable. It’s probably illegal.” (Vox)
> “How Pence’s Dudely Dinners Hurt Women” (The Atlantic)

> But by far the most outrageous of all the questions was this whopper by ABC’s Byron Pitts, who asked the VP, “When you talk to God in your moments alone, do you find yourself worrying at all that people you represent and care deeply about have died and will die who did not need to because of steps the federal government did not take soon enough?”
> Can you imagine a member of the mainstream media ever asking a Democrat such a loaded question? Of course you can’t. It is hard to imagine things that would never happen.
> The only questions Joe Biden ever received as VP were about his bromance with President Barack Obama. And maybe, “When will you do another BuzzFeed video?”
> The double standard is mind-blowing...]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:30:43 +0000
curi Stop Using Google Search
Or try Safari, Firefox or Edge. But Brave is just Chrome+privacy so I think it's basically the same as Chrome but better.

Chrome sucks at battery life btw. I believe Safari is the best at that.

Also, guys, be sure to use an ad blocker. I have 1Blocker on iphone. I recommend Ublock Origin for any browser where it's available (not Safari anymore and idk about mobile).

Note: Your ad blocker should prevent video ads on youtube, not just banner and sidebar ads on articles.

I haven't tested Brave enough yet to know how good their built in ad blocking is.


> Chrome will itself be ending support for uBlockOrigin soon.

So then you might need to switch to Firefox for the best ad blocking. The page has a lot of good info, though one problematic thing is it claims a recent update got Firefox battery usage similar to safari and chrome. But safari is way ahead of chrome so that doesn't entirely make sense.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 11:09:10 +0000
curi Stop Using Google Search Sun, 05 Apr 2020 10:52:42 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus

Tweets continue to be largely related to CCP Virus.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 09:51:03 +0000
Spending time rewording things to avoid offending readers GISTE Errors Merit Post-Mortems
I wanted to know whether SA thinks that spending hours rewording things to avoid offending readers was good or a waste of time. I couldn't tell from the quote you gave. So I looked at the whole paragraph. Here's the paragraph.

> I disagree with at least some of the views of all the people I listed, certainly including Cochran. Beyond that, I often find Cochran’s style to be needlessly aggressive. Where I’ll often spend hours rewording things to try to offend readers as little as I can, consistently with sticking to my principles, Cochran often seems like a (much more intellectual) radio shock jock in his evident delight in offending anyone who he considers an idiot.

So SA contrasted his style ("spend hours rewording things to try to offend readers as little as I can") against Cochran's style ("needlessly aggressive"). He used the word "needlessly", which I think implies that he disagrees with Cochran's style and prefers his own style. So I think SA thinks it's useful to spend hours rewording things to try to offend readers less, rather than it being a waste of time.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 05:44:40 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> 'All our ICU patients are in their 50s or younger' - frontline Welsh doctor recovered from virus]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 02:06:04 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> China Hiding MASSIVE Death Toll from Coronavirus

Good vid. I found and subscribed to this channel a couple weeks ago. But I forgot to switch from the default "personalized" notifications to "all" so I got notified of ZERO of their new videos :( Saw this one linked in SA's comments. Hopefully SA notices it and stops being egregiously wrong about China.

Like really, really wrong. SA wrote this in comments:

> marxbro #19: I’m prepared to make one of the largest concessions that I’ve ever made to Marxism about anything. I think that right now, a command-and-control system like China’s would be preferable to what we have in the US.

The video was specifically linked to counter this. So was another video and there was explanatory text. SA responded to 3 other comments from the same guy, both before and after, but didn't respond regarding this china stuff.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:55:34 +0000
curi Errors Merit Post-Mortems
> I’ll often spend hours rewording things to try to offend readers as little as I can, consistently with sticking to my principles]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:45:49 +0000
curi Errors Merit Post-Mortems
> For my part, here’s what I’ve learned from this episode: that I’d rather trust a single medical expert who seems smart and honest and whose logic I fully understand, than an organization of a thousand medical experts that’s vulnerable to political and bureaucratic pressure.

Also SA:

> marxbro #19: I’m prepared to make one of the largest concessions that I’ve ever made to Marxism about anything. I think that right now, a command-and-control system like China’s would be preferable to what we have in the US.

jfc, fooled by China? Maybe he'll learn better in a few months when he finds out China has 50k+ dead and is lying. SA also hates and flames Trump, a lot, which I didn't quote.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:27:05 +0000
curi Errors Merit Post-Mortems
> (And how should people update about me? I think the following would be fair: “He’s too fearful of embarrassment to serve as a reliable early warning system for civilization-wide catastrophes, not that he ever claimed to be anything more than a quantum complexity theorizing nebbish. On the other hand, like Bertrand Russell abandoning his pacifist absolutism in 1940, at least he’s able to recognize when others are righter than he is and course-correct.”)]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:23:49 +0000
curi Errors Merit Post-Mortems
> Incidentally, if anyone ever wondered why I despise SneerClub and woke Twitter, in ways that might seem wildly out of proportion to their actual importance in the world … well, you now have your answer. The people who get called clueless techbros, asshats, and a thousand other names on those forums were overwhelmingly represented among the people who turned out to be the clearest and rightest about the coronavirus from the beginning. And this is so directly consequential that, even if the rationalist techbro asshats were wrong about everything else in their entire lives (which I don’t think they were), being right this one time would more than cancel it out. Furthermore, the very qualities that the techbros get attacked for—e.g., arrogant reliance on their own reason and math abilities, refusal to defer to the authorities in other fields—were precisely the qualities that caused them to be unpopularly right this time. I might someday forgive the sneerers for targeting me personally, but I can never forgive them for so directly targeting our civilization’s error-correcting machinery, at what might end up being a huge cost in lives.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:19:24 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> I think a substantial part of this is that many of us have a somewhat rational fear of overreacting and being judged for it. For example I was at a faculty lunch in mid February, and I said that I’d heard some discussion of the APS March meeting being cancelled and I thought this was a good idea. Several people laughed, and the department chair said in front of the whole department that I was “fear-mongering”.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:18:57 +0000
curi Errors Merit Post-Mortems
Very good that Scott Aaronson not only changed his mind on coronavius and started taking it seriously, but is self-aware enough to be reflecting on why he was wrong and why he's been too trusting of the authorities in general. He's considering how he should change as a person/thinker.

This is something of an intellectual post-mortem – those are very important – and it also contains some good comments on the pandemic.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:15:41 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Very good that Scott Aaronson not only changed his mind on coronavius and started taking it seriously, but is self-aware enough to be reflecting on why he was wrong and why he's been too trusting of the authorities in general. He's considering how he should change as a person/thinker.

This is something of an intellectual post-mortem – those are very important – and it also contains some good comments on the pandemic.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:15:15 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 01:05:46 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
> The Sin Of SULLIVAN: Why Donald Trump, Tulsi Gabbard and I Are Suing For Libel

Peter Brimelow of VDARE is suing NYT (separately from Trump and Gabbard's suits). Lengthy article with a million links explains why.

MSM libels are trying to push people out of the town square so they have no voice, and are directly related to the extensive online deplatforming happening to vdare and others.]]>
Sun, 05 Apr 2020 00:38:00 +0000
curi Dennis Hackethal, Plagiarist

People ignore facts from Project Veritas, which are caught on camera, just because they are biased against Veritas.

Joe Rogan says:

> even though you see it on video, you hear people say things that should be outrageous to anyone who believes in objective reality, and yet people love to say 'that’s just a Project Veritas thing,' 'that guy's full of sh*t,' and they’ll say 'that guy's full of sh*t, good' and they cast it aside.]]>
Sat, 04 Apr 2020 17:25:15 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Sat, 04 Apr 2020 16:03:38 +0000 oh my god it's turpentine Dennis Hackethal, Plagiarist

Nielsen actually credits DD, unlike Hackenthal who just ripped off DD.]]>
Sat, 04 Apr 2020 14:53:00 +0000
Inductivism plagiarism example curi Dennis Hackethal, Plagiarist

DD in BoI:

> *Inductivism*   The misconception that scientific theories are obtained by generalizing or extrapolating repeated experiences, and that the more often a theory is confirmed by observation the more likely it becomes.

Dennis Hackethal in WoI:

> *Inductivism* – The misconception that we create explanations through induction and that theories corroborated by observation are more likely to be true

If you don't see the issue, or for more info and detail, see my on-stream explanation. It starts roughly 50 minutes into the stream and goes ~10min.]]>
Sat, 04 Apr 2020 14:09:37 +0000
Justin Made a Video About This Blog Post curi Dennis Hackethal, Plagiarist ](]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2020 14:07:09 +0000 ingracke Coronavirus Solution
But another issue right now is that we don't even know the death rate or the longterm effects of covid-19. It takes people weeks to die. So in the western countries that recently started getting it, it is possible that there is actually a higher death rate for young people than we realized. It is also possible that many of the survivors have long-term health effects, like reduced lung capacity, or susceptibility to other infections. Maybe some of them will require lung transplants.

So that is another reason to be cautious with plans that involve only letting the young & healthy people get infected. (BTW, one way to let young & healthy people get infected would be to segregate young, healthy volunteers from the rest of the population, and infect them while they are quarantined together. That would be more practical than trying to keep the old people segregated for the next 18 months. The young, healthy people could go be quarantined in groups & for much shorter periods of time. They could also be infected in a more controlled way, with smaller doses. But we can't even consider this until we have a better idea of the death rate & complications, and we wouldn't be able to do it until the situation was more under control - we don't have a lot of resources to spare right now.)]]>
Sat, 04 Apr 2020 00:48:26 +0000
curi Gaming Discussion
Enjoying this channel I just found with histories of various gamers, especially streamers.]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 23:50:42 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Gulag-tested tips from Sharansky for getting through quarantine/isolation.

I liked tip 2.]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 19:09:50 +0000
Anonymous Dennis Hackethal, Plagiarist
> In January 2019 you [Dennis Hackethal] reached out to me on Twitter asking about my business ideas for a collaborative problem solving platform. I shared them with you during a long Skype call. I hope you haven't borrowed any of these [for the forum you made] without asking permission?

DH replied "Hehe". He also denied it. In his denial, he made claims about where his inspiration came from which omitted the significant role of FI.]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 16:46:16 +0000
Andy Dufresne What To Do About Coronavirus
I also heard on the news this morning that the government (CDC?) is going to revise their recommendations and start recommending mask wearing by the general public.]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 13:46:12 +0000
curi Coronavirus Solution Fri, 03 Apr 2020 13:44:05 +0000 Plagiarized curi Dennis Hackethal, Plagiarist
This book contains extensive plagiarism of Elliot Temple (me) and David Deutsch (my colleague and mentor). Deutsch and I developed and published many of the ideas in the book which are presented as Dennis Hackethal’s own ideas.

Dennis learned not only from reading my work and watching my videos, but also from a personal mentoring relationship. I personally helped him learn about topics like universality, animal intelligence, Popper, Deutsch, and structural epistemology (the multiplication stuff). Then he plagiarized me on those topics and others. There are public records of many forum posts where I helped him learn this stuff over the 5 months leading up to around when he stopped speaking to me without explanation and started writing the book, around a year ago. I also helped teach Dennis in private chatrooms and on voice calls. My name does not appear in the book once.

Here is an example of the plagiarism. Me teaching Dennis: “X is a universal Y if it can do any Z that any other Y can do.” We had a lengthy email discussion about this idea and a voice call about it too. Dennis struggled to understand it.

Then the book says, “Criterion of universality – x is a universal y if it can do all the z’s all the other y’s can do”. No credit is given and it’s presented as Dennis’ own words, not as a quote.

Ideas plagiarized from Deutsch’s books, with zero credit, include: problems are soluble, problems are inevitable, the jump to universality, reach, and criteria for reality.

I initially contacted Dennis about the plagiarism privately, even though he didn’t even notify me the book existed even after publication. He responded indicating that he had gotten a lawyer and would not read my explanation of what he plagiarized. Then my website went down due to a DDOS attack.]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 11:59:18 +0000
curi Dennis Hackethal, Plagiarist
FYI this blog post was put up around 11:15 AM, pacific time, on April 3, 2020. The DOS began at around 9:30 AM, around 45 hours after Dennis Hackethal received a draft version of this blog post.]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 11:28:53 +0000
nikluk Coronavirus Solution Would it be reasonable to condense it down to something like:
As long as the situation seriously threatens to overload the healthcare system, or keep it overloaded, then the hammer strategy is still the best option?

Healthcare system overload seems to be the key factor to keep in check - for all the reasons given in #16227. Is that a fair assessment?]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 09:11:58 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus Fri, 03 Apr 2020 05:57:49 +0000 kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
> What do you think induction can be used for and how does one implement it?

Inductive arguments can be used to infer the approximate truth, truth likeliness, or belief in a theory based on the past success of the theory. It can be used to decide between multiple theories (e.g. which medical treatment to use) based on one theory's greater success. Therefore, it can be used to solve the problem of theory choice that Popper struggled with.

You start with premises that tell you that you have a representative sample of predictions derived from your theory, and the level of success that these predictions have had during testing. With an inductive argument you then conclude that your theory approximates the truth. Unlike deductive arguments; if the premises of an inductive inference are true, it does not necessitate that the conclusion is true.]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 03:37:29 +0000
kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
> Note the entire list, both best and second best, is 538 total pages – a lot shorter than some of Popper's individual books. It's a reasonable amount to read to know about Popper.

To begin with, I have read (not front to back) a number of Popper's books; "Conjectures and Refutations", "Logic of Scientific Discovery", and "Objective Knowledge". I have focused especially on the chapters that deal with his solution to the problem of induction, theory appraisal, probability, corroboration, and practical theory choice.

I can't recall Popper demonstrating the impossibility of performing an induction, only his demonstration of the impossibility of justifying an induction. I’m having a look through Popper’s “Realism and the Aim of Science” now because you list it under Popper’s best, but so far it looks like more of the same.

Any particular chapter (quotes would be great!) where you think Popper provides this argument?

> Side point:

> An epistemology which is not 100% completely specified (as no ideas ever are), but has no *known* induction anywhere in it, would still be notable.

> A scenario like "We didn't search every possible location (because there are trillions or infinitely many), but we searched a lot and didn't find it yet." is meaningful.

Take what you just said as an example. Are you not accepting/believing the truth-likeliness of the conclusion that your epistemology is induction-less, based on the premise that the past sample of arguments that you analysed were found to be induction-less?]]>
Fri, 03 Apr 2020 02:57:31 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 22:28:14 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> 6 feet enough for social distancing? MIT researcher says droplets carrying coronavirus can travel up to 27 feet

I did not investigate the quality of the research.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 21:59:36 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> In case anyone thinks Vox was merely being stupid, apparently Yglesias knew Coronachan was coming and prepped all the while mocking the others who were prepping.

As you can see at the link, he ordered masks in February.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 19:13:26 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> How much coronavirus is needed to infect everyone on Earth?

*Great video*. Demonstrates how easily graphite sticks to your hands and how hard to wash off it is (as a comparison to viruses). Uses a microscope to show it on fingers.

At the end, he points out *not touching stuff* is more important than hand washing.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:26:47 +0000
ingracke Coronavirus Solution
Oh, yes, I agree with that.

I was interpreting the question as meaning something more like: Assume the hammer is working, but it is going on too long. After how many months do we just give up and let people die to save the economy.

That is a common question/point I have seen brought up repeatedly, so that's what I took it to mean. There are people who think that waiting 18 months for a vaccine is too long, and as soon as we let up we will have the deaths, so we should just let up now instead of prolonging it. I was arguing against that.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 14:21:05 +0000
curi Coronavirus Solution
If 99% are already infected, we can give up on social distancing, stop staying home, etc.

What about giving up at 95%? 90%?

There is some point. We are nowhere near it and it's not an important or useful issue to more precisely figure out what the point is. But it exists.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 12:57:15 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
What have you read and not read from this list?

Note the entire list, both best and second best, is 538 total pages – a lot shorter than some of Popper's individual books. It's a reasonable amount to read to know about Popper.

> If in fact Popper did not demonstrate this, then what is lacking is a demonstration that his epistemology is induction-less.

Side point:

An epistemology which is not 100% completely specified (as no ideas ever are), but has no *known* induction anywhere in it, would still be notable.

A scenario like "We didn't search every possible location (because there are trillions or infinitely many), but we searched a lot and didn't find it yet." is meaningful.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 12:27:35 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> In early March, as the number of infected was doubling every few days, authorities [in Italy] allowed overwhelmed hospitals to transfer those who tested positive but weren't gravely ill into assisted-living facilities for the elderly.

wtf. sending infected ppl to where a bunch of high-risk elderly ppl are? on purpose?]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 12:20:35 +0000
curi Coronavirus Solution
(written and posted before reading ingracke's replies)

Very roughly, it's too late when 50% of the population has already been infected. Before that it's still plausible and worthwhile to (mostly) stop the spread by doing hammer.

It depends on speed of spread too. If 60% have been infected but only 2% are currently infected and 48% are recovered, then definitely do hammer to save the other 40%.

But if 50% have been infected and 40% are currently infected, that sounds like probably too late. If people would actually listen and do everything right, and all start the hammer today, it'd still be good to save a lot of people from infection. But with disobedience, carelessness, some spread due to essential business, spread to family members while staying at home, etc., maybe it'd be time to give up on stopping it.

Actually no wait, I think that's wrong. That was my first thought and I won't edit, but there's a major issue I didn't factor in. If 40% are currently infected, the hospitals are overwhelmed. That's really bad. It's still quite possibly worth it to hammer, even if it doesn't exactly work and everyone ends up infected, just to flatten the curve some. Like if the last 10% of the population (that get infected) get infected late, at least they'll have hospital resources available and therefore only have maybe a 0.66% death rate instead of the 4%.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 12:19:04 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

> Milk purchases are being rationed at supermarkets right now, and at the same time dairy companies are hurting because schools aren't buying.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 11:26:58 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Suppose people are currently buying 10% more food on average. That seems pretty reasonable.

Maybe that alone is enuf to empty grocery store shelves! I'm not sure. idk how much extra stuff stores have compared to purchase flow.

like if ppl buy 100k (avg) of stuff per day from a particular grocery store normally, and now they are buying 110k/day (avg), and the store has 200k of stuff btwn the floor and backroom and is getting 100k/day of resupply on avg ... then it's empty after 20 days. I don't know what numbers are realistic.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 11:22:55 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Talk to anyone in the industry, and they’ll tell you the toilet paper made for the commercial market is a fundamentally different product from the toilet paper you buy in the store. It comes in huge rolls, too big to fit on most home dispensers. The paper itself is thinner and more utilitarian. It comes individually wrapped and is shipped on huge pallets, rather than in brightly branded packs of six or 12.

Consumer and commercial TP sometimes doesn't even come from the same mills. It's a much bigger issue than just getting it delivered to different places.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 11:16:15 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Article explains a good reason for the toilet paper shortage that isn't hoarding or panic buying.

> In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.

> Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant.

Very good point about people using more TP at home and it's non-trivial to get TP for businesses onto retail store shelves and into the hands of consumers. I hadn't thought of that.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 11:13:00 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
> I don’t believe Popper demonstrated that it was impossible to perform an induction. I think he instead followed Hume in the conclusion that it is impossible to justify our inductive inferences without circularity, or other problems. Just because a type of inference is not justified, doesn’t mean it is impossible for someone to perform one.

What do you think induction can be used for and how does one implement it?]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 07:03:47 +0000
ingracke Coronavirus Solution
Like, maybe it would work to infect healthy people with really low amounts of the disease - maybe healthy people could volunteer to become infected & quarantine, and that could help us build up towards herd immunity.

But that is basically a type of treatment. That's an old-fashioned way to do something like a vaccine. We would need some research to even figure out how well it works.

I wouldn't call that an alternative to the hammer & the dance. It is a type of medical treatment. A crude one, but still medical treatment that requires research to even figure out if it works well, how safe it is, etc.

One of the things that we are currently buying time for is more medical research. If we can figure out some kind of treatments that would work, that would be great, and could change our dance strategy.

We can also learn more about how the virus actually spreads, what kills it, what we need to be careful of, when people are contagious, etc. Those things would all also help us with a more successful dance strategy.

None of those things are really alternatives to what I would consider the dance strategy - they are part of it.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 06:23:19 +0000
kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
I don’t believe Popper demonstrated that it was impossible to perform an induction. I think he instead followed Hume in the conclusion that it is impossible to justify our inductive inferences without circularity, or other problems. Just because a type of inference is not justified, doesn’t mean it is impossible for someone to perform one.

Maybe I’m wrong and Popper did demonstrate that it is impossible to perform an induction. Any relevant chapter in one of his books where you think he demonstrated this?

If in fact Popper did not demonstrate this, then what is lacking is a demonstration that his epistemology is induction-less.

I found this on the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy “The Problem of Induction” page ( It is another way of stating the problem.

>>Popper’s account appears to be incomplete in an important way. There are always many hypotheses which have not yet been refuted by the evidence, and these may contradict one another. According to the strictly deductive framework, since none are yet falsified, they are all on an equal footing. Yet, scientists will typically want to say that one is better supported by the evidence than the others. We seem to need more than just deductive reasoning to support practical decision-making (Salmon 1981). Popper did indeed appeal to a notion of one hypothesis being better or worse “corroborated” by the evidence. But arguably, this took him away from a strictly deductive view of science. It appears doubtful then that pure deductivism can give an adequate account of scientific method.]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 06:14:15 +0000
ingracke Coronavirus Solution
It is better to use the dance strategies whenever you can. It would have been better to use them initially, as Taiwan did. Once our numbers are low enough that we can use them, it will be better to use dance strategies. That will require the government actually preparing enough & being able to implement them well though.

But I think you are asking when it is better to do something besides the Hammer & Dance - what if the hammer takes too long? Is there a point where it is better to just let the disease run its course, to save the economy?

There's no point where it would be better to just let the disease run its course (without already having vaccines, treatments, etc). The death rate is too high. It would kill millions of people and overwhelm the healthcare system. People would die of other things too, not just covid, because the hospitals would be overwhelmed. We would lose healthcare workers to exhaustion and covid and suicide and PTSD. These things are *already happening* even though we have mitigation strategies. Things in Italy, Spain, NYC would be SO much worse if they hadn't shut down. Things would get bad enough that people would be afraid to leave their houses.

One way to stop from overwhelming the healthcare system would be to just stop admitting covid patients. We'd not want to admit ANY covid patients, since any positive patients could transfer it to other patients. We could maybe set up extra hospitals just to take covid patients, but we wouldn't have the capacity to take ALL of them - we'd have to just take young people with no pre-existing conditions or something. The people we are most likely to save. Even offering comfort care to higher risk patients would overwhelm the system. We don't have enough doctors & nurses to deal with that. But then where would those patients go to die? Home with their families to die there, gasping for breath? I know if anyone who advocates letting the disease run its course has thought through the reality of this.

One idea people have is to just segregate all the old people & those with health conditions. One thing to consider - that's already what nursing homes ARE. They are segregated old people. And those have led to really high death rates because once it gets into a nursing home, a lot of people die. There is no way to fully segregate nursing homes - they need staff. I don't think we would be able to get enough people to volunteer to leave their families & work in a nursing home for the next 18 months or whatever. And even if we could, they also need healthcare, food, supplies, people to come and fix things that break, etc. We can't just fully segregate them. All it takes is one person bringing it in, and a bunch of people die.

Another problem with that idea is that 40% of the US population is "high risk". 40% of people are either over 65 or have a health condition. How could we segregate 40% of the population? Where would we put those people even if we COULD segregate them? (Which, as I said above, we can't - they will still need food, healthcare, etc.)

There is no reasonable way to just let this run its course. We don't even know the death rate yet - we know that it's too high for the healthcare system to deal with. And we know that if we let it overwhelm the healthcare system, it will be even higher because people with covid won't get proper treatment, and neither will anyone else.

Are the people who want to just let it run its course willing to just let 1-5% of the population die? Do they think that will somehow save the economy?]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 06:11:33 +0000
n Coronavirus Solution
At what point has the mitigation [] been in action for such a long time that a hard lockdown (Hammer) is no longer the better strategy? When is it better to do something else?]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 05:45:14 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 03:49:46 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 03:26:53 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 02 Apr 2020 03:24:18 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
Ingraham saying Americans need some kinda objective metrics to know if we're winning the covid19 war and asking why congress not in session]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 19:45:18 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> I've been working with a generous donor to get a million PPEs (masks) to the myriad healthcare workers in NYC who constantly tell us they're facing shortages.

> Yet, hurdle after hurdle of dysfunction is severely inhibiting us from getting donated masks to those in need.

The twitter thread has a bunch more info about the problems.]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 19:18:38 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Another China in Focus from NTD news. And I wanted to share this pic from Spain:

Wed, 01 Apr 2020 17:02:52 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Info about the Chinese lab in Wuhan that may have accidentally contaminated researchers with the virus.]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 16:54:31 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

Don't see the map in the article but screenshotted a preview of it.]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 16:09:02 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Article talking about a proposal that some volunteers get infected with very small amounts of CCP Virus then isolate until they recover.

I mentioned a similar idea earlier. I said if you're going for herd immunity (or just give up on preventing 30%+ of the population from being infected), then instead of letting the virus spread on its own, you should give a lot of people tiny amounts which reduces the severity of the disease.]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 15:23:42 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Veritas gets a CCP Virus test. Some workers at the drive through testing place say the pandemic is not that bad and the media is overblowing it.]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 14:52:59 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
From 60 Minutes Australia (but only 13min)]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 14:46:28 +0000
curi Fallible Ideas Learning Plan]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 13:53:15 +0000
jorge Fallible Ideas Learning Plan
Where do I share it. Discord or FI group?]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 13:49:54 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 13:03:50 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
So we (CRists) don't have to be more specific about theory-choice in order to say induction isn't part of it, since we already, separately, excluded induction from all of thinking.

Re an induction alternative, CR offers an explanation of how we can learn that doesn't explicitly rely on induction and has no fundamental/mysterious gaps where we'd need a breakthrough to see how it could even be possible that it works. That's enough given also excluding induction from thinking entirely. We don't have to nail down every detail of everything to prove there's no induction anywhere because induction is literally impossible.]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 11:09:04 +0000
kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
Popper claims to provide an epistemology that is free from induction, and that can account for how we choose between theories for practical action. Therefore, he will need to give an account of theory choice that is explicitly induction-less. The broad answer "critical discussion/thinking" does not explicitly rule out induction, because for all we know your "critical discussion/thinking" could involve inductive inferences.

It concerns me when Popperians claim we do not use induction, but then I see them approaching inductive inferences when they attempt to account for theory choice; often referencing corroboration, verisimilitude, hard-to-vary, etc.

So it doesn't sound like you have a general account of theory choice that you can demonstrate as induction-less? For example, how do we choose between two known-to-be-false theories?]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 06:24:38 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
Another nurse quit after being told she wasn't allowed to wear her own N95 mask (and the hospital would not provide any masks):]]>
Wed, 01 Apr 2020 03:21:07 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Heard from a friend in China that manufacturers are selling masks to Europeans who are outbidding American importers.

> American importers are terrified of being attacked for price gouging so won’t pay market rates for emergency production of PPE.]]>
Tue, 31 Mar 2020 10:38:11 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
> .@IngrahamAngle Tweeted about this story of a man who had Coronavirus that said Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin saved his life.

> Twitter locked her account for it and made her delete it.

> Man who had Coronavirus and says Experimental Drugs saved his life says it’s “Truly Un-American” for people to not want the drugs to work because President Trump mentioned them.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 20:16:56 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Choir meets March 10 in Washington state. 60 people. 45 now diagnosed with CCP Virus. 2 dead already.

they used hand sanitizer and avoided hugging and handshakes and stuff (mostly but not perfectly, i assume)

> The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

but the authorities kept saying don't wear masks and if you don't have symptoms don't worry.... ><

> It's Time to Face Facts, America: Masks Work]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 18:15:54 +0000
Forgot the link GISTE Slow the coronavirus spread so we can test way more
I forgot to include the link to the article.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 17:14:37 +0000
More on the last comment GISTE Slow the coronavirus spread so we can test way more
> But local officials say there hasn't been a new case of COVID-19 there since March 13.

> Around 3,300 people were tested, even if they had no symptoms. [this happened more than 2 weeks ago]

> Nearly 3 per cent — or 89 Vo residents — were infected with COVID-19.

> Every Vo resident who tested positive for the virus was put in quarantine in their homes.

> The researchers decided against sending patients to hospital to prevent them spreading the disease there.

> After two weeks of quarantine, the researchers carried out another round of mass testing in Vo.

> The rate of COVID-19 infection had dropped from nearly 3 per cent to 0.41 per cent.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 17:10:15 +0000
> "On the second testing that was carried out, we recorded a 90 percent drop in the rate of positive cases. And of all the ones who were positive in the second testing, eight people were asymptomatic," said Professor Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London on sabbatical at the University of Padua in Italy, Sky reports.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 16:55:14 +0000
curi Open Discussion 2 (2019)
> This is How China Beat the Corona Virus - should we copy?

Some info about Chinese actions and oppression.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:53:59 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Don't head to your cottage to wait out COVID-19 pandemic, Canadians warned

For city folk, just going somewhere rural to avoid disasters ain't so easy. Even if you already own property there, you may not be welcome (and with a variety of good reasons).]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:41:30 +0000
curi Open Discussion 2 (2019)]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:35:38 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:31:36 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Tampa megachurch crowded with worshipers, despite social distancing orders

They say they're essential and they don't want to turn people away in a time of need. But they also say this:

> "We brought in 13 machines that basically kill every virus in the place," Howard-Browne said. "If they sneeze it shoots it down like at 100 miles per hour and it will neutralize it in a split second."]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 12:21:50 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
Popper himself already provided an alternative to those: judging ideas by critical discussion/thinking. Popper (particularly early on) attempted to formalize that and make some points more specific and mathematical. If you reject that formalization, it doesn't leave any gap in CR. You still have the broad answer, the big picture, the overall explanation of what to do and why, as well as dozens of other particulars Popper gave. There's certainly room to fill in more details and give more guidance on various specifics, as there is with every area of CR. That's something I work on.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 11:47:21 +0000
way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" N The CCP Coronavirus
> This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia [*and MinutePhysics*] about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.

Graph from the video available here:]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 06:58:03 +0000
Hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 GISTE Coronavirus Solution


Company awarded $750,000 by US government to do a 1-month study of Hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19:


Hydroxychloroquine is an existing drug, e.g. used for malaria and lupus. So it's already in production and production is now being ramped up.

FDA changed their rules to allow the use of this drug for emergency cases even though no study has been done yet. I hope this policy continues in the future for all diseases.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 06:25:54 +0000
kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Mon, 30 Mar 2020 05:13:03 +0000 curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Sun, 29 Mar 2020 22:05:33 +0000 kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Sun, 29 Mar 2020 21:26:36 +0000 Anonymous Deplatforming and Fraud]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:13:32 +0000
Politics: Coronavirus and Trump curi The CCP Coronavirus
David Horowitz continues earning my respect. He's being reasonable (unlike, say, Ann Coulter, Twitter's censors or the Democrats).

The article is mostly politics, not coronavirus info.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 18:41:46 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:21:10 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Coronavirus: Italy becoming impatient with lockdown - and social unrest is brewing

Hard to tell how much is related to actual missed meals and hunger, and how much isn't.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:06:18 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:02:58 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

The age distribution of who has CCP Virus is a lot lower than the stats in many countries are showing.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:00:48 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:32:14 +0000
curi Second-handedness Examples

> One thing I've struggled with personally - I told my family in early February that we should expect the virus to hit here and should buy what we'd need and plan to soon stop leaving our home. I wasn't that direct in a public article for three more weeks. Why not?

> I didn't want to sound alarmist. I didn't want to step out ahead of public health officials, who were still telling us that the risk was low. I wanted to tell readers what scientists were saying, and they too were trying not to sound alarmist.

Kelsey Piper on reddit about it:

> For what it's worth, I don't think I failed to say more about coronavirus because I felt pressure from Vox's political/cultural environment. (I do experience that sometimes, on things like 'the travel ban from China was a good idea', but it's a distinct thing and one I think I'm much better at noticing.) I might write more about this on some medium that's not Twitter, but I think the thing that made it hard to shout "fire" was much more "having a position of perceived authority and reasonableness" than anything specific to that position being at Vox. I had a bunch of templates for how reasonable people talk and what kinds of things they say, and they do say things like 'many public health experts tell me they're underprepared for a pandemic', and they don't say things like 'every American should be preparing right now to spend the next six weeks under a lockdown without historical or legal precedent'.
> What it felt like from the inside was that the implications of my beliefs were too ridiculous for me to feel comfortable committing them to public scrutiny. People on Twitter would yell at me and other people would quietly lose respect for me and I might be wrong and it would be sufficiently embarrassing that rather than contemplate whether this tradeoff was the correct one (yes, it was), I just held all those implications in abeyance, not assigning them a specific probability, considering them likely enough to be worth preparing for but not, like, likely enough that I would want to be associated with them.
> I think the correct strategy to have prevented this is actually kind of simple (and yes, I'm now doing it.) When I said things to my family, I should have put an actual number on them, instead of saying vague things that didn't require me to notice their implications. I should've asked Scott if we could sit down for a weekend and figure out the most important questions and agree on our best guesses. If I'd done that - just nailed my beliefs down enough and propagated all their implications - then it would've been obvious that writing more, faster, sooner, spending social capital at work to do so if necessary (it likely wouldn't have been -- again, no one at Vox pushed back on the articles I did want to write, at all!), was worth it.
> There was, separately from that, a thing where I had compartmentalized my family as a domain where I had heroic responsibility to actually keep them alive no matter what happened and my job as a domain where I had mere ordinary responsibility-to-have-done-as-much-as-one-reasonably-could, which was uncomfortable to notice but which I again don't really think is about conforming with Vox (it's mostly about the fact that pointing heroic responsibility at one's EA job is emotionally exhausting and always results in tearful breakdowns about how spending time on reddit literally kills people). I'm thinking about how to fix it but I haven't come up with anything yet. This one is clearly really important, but it's also really rough -- I have definitely tried just flipping on the 'I am responsible for these articles the way I'm responsible for my children' switch at work and the result is being crushed by guilt and worry.
> If someone is in a similar situation I think my advice to them would be to notice the desire to be reasonable, have a place where you are explicitly and deliberately unreasonable, and to pin all your beliefs to the wall with actual numbers so that you notice if you have anything in a vague 'likely enough to act on it for some things but not likely enough to have examined all its implications' bucket.

Matt Stoller deleted his similar public admission of second-handedness, so here's a screenshot:

Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:30:17 +0000
She'll Say Whatever She Thinks YOU "Want To Hear" curi Second-handedness Examples
Couldn’t find this article online so pasting it:

When a lot of guys start out, they approach girls thinking women will give them flat facts.
Ask a girl a question, she'll just give you some facts.
Like, what is her favorite color? Blue!
That's a fact, easy.
How about this one: how old is she?
Well, 22!
And... she might be.
Of course she might also be lying.
She might really be 18 but doesn't want you to think she's too young.
Or perhaps she's 28 but is afraid you'll think she's too old.
So now, you see, it's begun to get more complicated.
How about ask her how much she likes her job?
Well, she hates it!
At least that is what she might say if she thinks you think an office job like hers is so stuck up.
If she thinks you are another office worker like her, and one who thinks office work is grand, she might say she likes it fine.
What about how many guys she's been with?
If you seem nervous, she'll realize you have no business asking this, and tell you as much.
If you're straightforward, but seem like a boyfriend candidate, she might say, "Not that many. Only four."
If you're sexy about it, and she feels like you are a powerful, sexual guy she can really open up to, she might admit, "Thirteen."
Which one's the truth? Is it *four...* or *thirteen?*
Women will deflate their numbers smaller for men they want in relationships.
However, sometimes they will EXAGGERATE numbers for guys they think are a lot more experienced than them.
They don't want to look like clueless bumpkins, after all.
Women tell you what they think YOU want to hear.
They decide what they think you want to hear based on your actions and behavior with them.
And the truth a woman gives YOU about herself may well be totally different from the one she gives someone else.

I like ambitious women.
A lot of guys don't. Most guys like their women submissive. And that's fine too.
There's just something about a cute sexy girl with a fire inside her who is trying to "get somewhere" in her life I find adorable, though.
Anyway, something I have noticed over the years is that women will instinctively portray themselves as a lot more ambitious with me than they do with other men.
They will confess to big dreams and goals and aspirations with me, that I find out only later many of them are not that serious about.
At the time I first meet them though, they paint themselves as TOTAL high fliers!
Even the women who are lazy layabouts will do this.
They do it because they figure out it is what I want, and they KNOW they have to do it to hold my interest.
Because honestly, if a girl tells me she just likes to lie around and watch movies and wants nothing more from life than that, I lose all interest in her.
Even if she is BEAUTIFUL... I just find her so *boring*.
I don't want to be bored.
I want the people around me to INTEREST me.
Most women sense that this is a requirement of mine, and they do what they can to fulfill it.
The truth is, most women are not really all that ambitious at all.
But around me, something like 75% of women BECOME super ambitious!
Funny how that works, huh?
It is the same way that a guy who thinks women are all "good girls" who do not like physical intimacy finds all women are exactly that.
Every girl he talks to is an asexual prude who wants nothing to do with anything remotely sexy.
However, every now and again, he spies his asexual prude girls getting all hot and bothered with some random sexy guy, and his world implodes.
How did it happen?
How did that guy "trick" her?
How did he manage to turn on this totally asexual prude girl?
Well, that guy did NOT trick her.
Instead, the girl just told and showed each guy what he wanted to hear and see.
The guy who thinks girls are all asexual prudes wanted to see a girl who was an asexual prude. So she gave him that.
When later on she ran into a guy who thinks women are all naughty sensual vixens, she showed HIM *that*.
There is nothing weird or unusual here.
It is just like how if a guy gets in your face trying to fight, he will see your "tough guy side" as you bristle to defend yourself...
... meanwhile if another guy comes up being chummy, cracking funny jokes, and offering you a beer, he will see your "cool guy side" instead.
People in a social environment will reflect back whatever they are getting from you.
Men do this.
You do this.
Women do it too.
Women do it to YOU.

Every moment of every day, you tell the people around you what you're looking for.
You may not realize it.
Often it's totally unconscious.
And yet, you DO it.
There are different ways men act when they're hoping for or expecting certain answers.
When you ask a woman if she goes out a lot, for example, she can feel whether you want her to say yes or you want her to say no.
Most women will not COMPLETELY lie (though some will).
However, most women will strongly ADJUST their answers to match what they believe you want to hear.
If she can tell you're uncomfortable as you ask how often she goes out, and detects you might be judging her, you are going to get a "Not often."
If on the other hand she sees you are a cool party guy and you expect her to be a party person too, you will get something more like "I go out!" even if she doesn't.
These little adjustments like this influence HOW a woman behaves with you.
The ripple effects aren't just little.
They're BIG!
The same girl will be reserved and aloof with one man, and all up on another (equally attractive) man, due to the read she gets from each guy.
Even if she LIKES both guys the same!
She believes one guy needs one thing to continue liking her (or like her more). And the other guy needs a different thing.
And she spins herself into whatever she thinks each guy needs.
If you don't think you're putting signals out like this... you are!
And the women around you pick up on them!
So... how do you fix this "unconscious" communication?
The only way is to pay MORE attention to yourself with women, and keep an eye on how you come across.
When you notice you don't come across in a way helpful to what you want her to do, change that.
Change it with THAT girl, if you can.
If you can't, change it with the NEXT girl.
It may take a few tries to get right.
However, you will find you can change a lot of your nonverbal communication.
The most important part here is the AWARENESS you are putting these signals out there.
You need to know they are there before you can start to change them.
Women are picking up on them.
And then, they are telling you what you want to hear. And showing you what you want to say.
Women aren't "fact machines."
They adjust their "facts" based on WHOM they think they're talking to.
If women are not telling you what you THINK you want to hear, there may just be a clue as to why in what signals you send them.
**You may be telling them to give you different "facts" than the ones you think you want!**
Once you realize this, you can start to tweak the signals you send.
Make yourself come across as more comfortable, for instance.
Or more encouraging on things you want to encourage.
Or discouraging, if you're talking about prudish things.
As you change the signals you put out, you will change the way women PRESENT themselves to you... often in some pretty big ways.
Ciao for now,
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:16:43 +0000
Anne B Second-handedness Examples
Attilio Fontana, the governor of Lombardy, in Italy:

> “Unfortunately, the numbers are not very nice, the number of infected people has increased a bit too much compared to the line of the past few days,” said Fontana. “We will have to evaluate if this is an exceptional fact determined by some particular episode or if this is an increasing trend, which would be a little embarrassing.”

He talks about the possibility of being a little embarrassed, not about whether his government is doing the right things to help keep more people alive.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 05:30:29 +0000
Anonymous Deplatforming and Fraud
This article talks about some SPLC guy demonizing VDare.

SPLC guy says:

> The castle is also securely embedded on a hill and surrounded by iron gates, making it hard for antiracist demonstrators to access it should VDARE decide to host a conference there. Well-attended counterdemonstrations have had a deleterious impact on the racist right’s ability to organize in public in recent years, making secure locations appealing to white nationalists like those linked to VDARE.

The SPLC's tweet about his article got a bunch of threatening replies. Read the article for details. Just taking one example, somebody tweeted:

> Aluminum powder mixed with iron oxide.
> Or Gallium if you're trying to be sneaky.

VDare says:

> That’s what we must call a really serious threat. The first part (aluminum powder and iron oxide) is the recipe for thermite, as used in arson and sabotage. And gallium reacts with aluminum in peculiar ways.

> I don’t know all the details, but I’m not trained in metallurgy, as “Dedwrekka” is. His Twitter profile reads “Questioning White Bio-male. He/Him/Yall. Veteran. Animation, Woodworking, Metalworking, Sculpting, Makeing".

> It doesn’t take much in the way of internet sleuthing to establish that this guy threatening us with thermite is a college student in North Texas named Aaron, who is studying metalcrafts.

> I don’t want to “doxx” him in the usual sense. But if the FBI or other law enforcement agencies are interested, I’ll forward them the details.

> *And they should be*. This is a “terroristic threat” *across state lines*.

> This is just one more instance of the danger of the SPLC, which as Hayden notes in his article, has been targeting us specifically for almost twenty years.

Some disturbing things going on here:

1. VDare has had to deal with enough problems hosting their peaceful events that they felt they needed to buy a literal castle and rely on medieval physical security technology to protect them from mobs.

2. The mob is being whipped up by activists and issuing very specific threats about what criminal acts they might engage in.

3. The police will probably do nothing to stop this.

The situation is bad :-(]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 04:18:27 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> They were ready to roll whenever disaster struck California: three 200-bed mobile hospitals that could be deployed to the scene of a crisis on flatbed trucks and provide advanced medical care to the injured and sick within 72 hours.

> Each hospital would be the size of a football field, with a surgery ward, intensive care unit and X-ray equipment. Medical response teams would also have access to a massive stockpile of emergency supplies: 50 million N95 respirators, 2,400 portable ventilators and kits to set up 21,000 additional patient beds wherever they were needed.

> In 2006, citing the threat of avian flu, then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced the state would invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a powerful set of medical weapons to deploy in the case of large-scale emergencies and natural disasters such as earthquakes, fires and pandemics.

Over $200 million was spent by a Republican who wanted to protect us. Then, to save money, it was defunded and dismantled, by a Democrat, in 2011, before being used.

> The annual savings for eliminating both programs? No more than $5.8 million per year

That's around 0.0045% of California's budget.

> “It’s the nearsightedness of political decision-making,” said Backer, who retired last year. “If you talked to the experts, we knew that pandemics were going to come around.”]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 17:42:58 +0000
curi Social Reality and Real Reality
> Tucker: How local leaders failed their cities [re coronavirus]

This is what it looks like to value social reality over real reality. They care more about keeping various social groups happy than about facts on the ground. But viruses don't listen to virtue signaling anymore than e.g. furnaces in *Atlas Shrugged* do...

> “You must give him a job, here, at the mills—but a nice, clean job, of course, with a desk and an office and a decent salary, where he wouldn’t have to be among your day laborers and your smelly furnaces.”

> “If one of my blast furnaces goes down, will I be able to keep it going by feeding your intention into it?”

> Nothing could have made you act against your judgment, and you would have rejected as wrong—as evil—any man who attempted to tell you that the best way to heat a furnace was to fill it with ice. Millions of men, an entire nation, were not able to deter you from producing Rearden Metal—because you had the knowledge of its superlative value and the power which such knowledge gives. But what I wonder about, Mr. Rearden, is why you live by one code of principles when you deal with nature and by another when you deal with men?”

> A young man with a look of chronic hurt and impertinence together, rushed up to him, crying, “I couldn’t help it, Mr. Rearden!” and launched into a speech of explanation. Rearden turned his back on him without a word. It was the assistant in charge of the pressure gauge of the furnace, a young man out of college.

> “Hank, I don’t think they care whether there’s a train or a blast furnace left on earth. We do.

Or an N95 mask, or a respirator.

> “Their factories will stop, then their furnaces and their radios. Then their electric light system will go.”

> “You’ll see,” he said, pacing the room. “You think they’re powerful—those giants of industry who’re so clever with motors and furnaces? They’ll be stopped! They’ll be stripped! They’ll be brought down!

> “I needed that furnace, Philip. It wasn’t my need that gave it to me.”

Here is the sort of social reality these people live in:

> Tucker Investigates: How did Chris Cuomo get into Yale?

Facts like how good they are at tests, and how well the meet the admissions standards, don't get in the way of kids from the right social circles meeting up at the right universities to social network with each other.]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 16:23:04 +0000
curi Open Discussion 2 (2019)]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 15:34:51 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Urns in Wuhan far exceed official CCP virus death toll; riot breaks out in virus-hit Hubei]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:53:08 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

I think it's really worth seeing.]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 07:10:27 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

The article doesn't say that. It says:

> But the *Guardiam* [sic] reports this afternoon that her death has not actually been recorded as a Covid-19 death:

They don't seem to know anything about what she died of. It may have been CCP Virus.]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 06:53:21 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 02:27:14 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 02:13:14 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
A few highlights from the thread of someone who got infected:

> I'm 38 and have no underlying health conditions.

> Anything over 180/120 [blood pressure] is classified as 'hypertensive crisis' (basically, heart attack/stroke territory). Without revealing what mine was, lets just say I was well, well in excess of this (again, I don't have an underlying issue). This was easily the most terrifying moment.

> I called my doctor friends and told them. "Time to call 999" they said - so I did. It took more than 15 minutes to speak with a representative; that's how overwhelmed the emergency services are. I told them my BP and that I have coronavirus.

> Ultimately they decided they couldn't respond to my call.

38, no underlying health conditions, mortal danger, and left at home with no ambulance and no help.

The poster has personal relationships with multiple doctors and had to self-treat at home using advice they gave him to lower his blood pressure.

Since he hasn't been hospitalized, this is a "mild" case in the stats. Or maybe not a case at all since he didn't actually get tested for coronavirus.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 21:12:47 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
Evolution adapts information to a purpose.

Knowledge is purpose-having information. (Solving a problem is a purpose.)

Fri, 27 Mar 2020 20:07:15 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud Fri, 27 Mar 2020 20:02:35 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
> China is re-closing all its movie theaters.

Why, unless they're lying about how contained the virus is?

> PSA: If you live in Tokyo or are responsible for people who are, you should act consistently with the belief that Tokyo will almost certainly have a scenario similar to New York.

> You can see last few tweets for news organizations sourcing on the record government projections.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 19:56:34 +0000
kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
Yes I believe so; ideas as replicators that go through the process of variation (conjecture), and selection (criticism).]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 19:54:34 +0000
Anonymous Deplatforming and Fraud]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 19:07:31 +0000
Andy Dufresne What To Do About Coronavirus
Unlike some other papers this one seems to have tested the virus on some surfaces until it wasn't detectable (instead of saying it was detectable after X days but not when it wasn't detectable).

I think it implies my process for mail is overkill. If the virus is undetectable on paper after only 3 hours at room temp, all I'd have to do is leave the mail in the box at least 3 hours after delivery even if the mailman was the infection source. My box is outside, but absent some strange weather that's going to be higher than room temp during the day for at least the next 6 months, plus it sits in the sun so it's even warmer than ambient temp.

BTW I recommend the mailbox I have. It allows me to remove the mail without touching anything the mailman touched other than the mail. It's:

I can open the bottom section (where the mail drops) using only the key, never touching the box itself. Also really good for protecting mail & small packages from theft.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 18:31:32 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> When New York Needed Him Most, Bill de Blasio Had His Worst Week As Mayor

> Shortly thereafter, he declined to cancel St. Patrick’s Day parade and then did. He resisted calls to cancel regular street sweeping and then did. He had a photo op at a 311 call center, where he told a caller who had just returned from Italy that she did not need to self-quarantine, advice that forced 311 to actually call the woman back and tell her to stay inside for 14 days. The mayor touted the city’s new, wide-scale testing capacity, only to have his Health Department announce that only hospitalized patients should be tested. He tweeted at Elon Musk to supply the city with ventilators. When a New York Times reporter wrote of his own gut-wrenching story about contracting COVID-19 and being unable to get help, a top mayoral aide chastised him online for seeking help at all rather than just getting better at home. And the mayor himself told a radio host that people who don’t display symptoms can’t transmit the disease, an assertion that contradicts information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

> “If you love your neighborhood bar, go there now,” de Blasio advised New Yorkers before his meeting — advice that seemed focused on imminent closings as the main problem, not the health threat from keeping them open.

Extra visits to bars right before they closed helped spread coronavirus.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 14:40:13 +0000
curi Discussion Trees With Example]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 13:32:22 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Mythbusters vid (6min) on germ contamination/spread. Practical demonstration where they show the (simulated) germs with UV light at the end.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:19:04 +0000
Andy Dufresne The CCP Coronavirus
I get that 2017 culture would have made mask-wearing difficult for her. And I'd guess she also got lucky not wearing a mask when she did go out.

But we need to change the culture now to where masks are acceptable instead of weird. I'm afraid people will read this article, not actually do what it says very well, and then also conclude masks aren't necessary so don't wear them cuz it looks weird.

For example, 6-foot rule I am hearing from people who do go out that most people have no idea how far 6 feet is and/or no desire to follow it. Most store aisles it is impossible to pass someone without violating the 6-foot rule. People aren't going around through a different aisle rather than pass you, or even squeezing to the opposite side as much as they can. If you stay 6 feet away from the person ahead of you in line people try to cut, thinking you're not in line. People bunch up in front of doors before stores open. Etc. Given that reality it seems to me that mask-wearing is necessary if you're going to the store for essentials or an essential IRL job. Cuz other people simply will not stay 6 feet away.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 09:19:17 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
>> I had no immune system for months after my bone marrow transplant. Here’s how I avoided viral illness, and how you can, too. It’s easier than you think.

> Wash your hands more! Great article. Seriously read it.

from the article:

> After my transplant, I washed my hands constantly, and I washed them thoroughly. I washed the palms, the backs, my wrists, each finger individually (concentrating on the finger tips), and then I scrubbed my fingernails in my palms. The whole “wash your hands for 20 seconds” thing made me laugh when I first heard it. If you truly wash your hands thoroughly, with the goal of removing any trace of pathogen you may have touched, it always takes at least 20 seconds, if not more.

> I washed my hands like this after every time I used the bathroom, before I ate, after touching anything in a public place, immediately after returning home from being out anywhere, after working out, after driving my car, after working on my computer, after feeding my pets, after cleaning my house.

> If I wanted to scratch my nose, or I needed to put in my contact lenses, I washed my hands first, before ever touching my face.

> If my hands didn’t physically feel freshly washed, I washed them.
> If I couldn’t remember the last time I washed them, I washed them.
> I only used hand sanitizer when I didn’t have access to hot water and soap.
> If this sounds extreme, consider how much simpler and easier this is than being sick.

the "extremeness" here reminds me of the rigor with which I approached my calorie counting, which people often think is extreme (result: lost tons of weight). It's not that it is extreme: it's just what it takes to do the thing effectively. good article.

I was also thinking recently about how people focus a lot on ideas like herd immunity but less on what you might call herd sanitariness. What I mean by herd sanitariness is: if tons of people start washing rigorously, wearing masks and using gloves whenever practical, then that makes it much harder for virus to spread, even if there are a few careless sick people still out there. Cuz the careless sick people will be encountering a constant wall of mask-wearing, glove-wearing, hand-washing, disinfectant-wipe-using, socially-distanced people. And that's a benefit we can get without the herd immunity downsides of a bunch of people getting sick and some dying.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 09:17:42 +0000
Anonymous Politics Discussion
>> Tucker: What will higher education look like after coronavirus?

> People may realize unis are a rip off and online education is way more cheap/efficient.

Thought this article was interesting. Basically art students think remote learning can't work for their art stuff and want a partial refund, and the university said nah and communicated in a very poor manner. Sharing most of article below:

> Over the past week or so, the student body of Tisch (particularly the Drama students) has engaged in a back and forth with the administration regarding tuition and Zoom classes. Aggrieved students argue that remote classes cannot possibly serve as an adequate replacement for classes that necessitate a physical presence in the room (like acting classes, or dance classes, or film projects, or etcetera), and there have been various calls for a partial refund of tuition, including a petition that at publication had approximately 1,700 signatures, and calls to strike by sitting out of virtual classes.

> In turn, Tisch administration has responded with a number of emails stating categorically that no tuition will be refunded, and explanations of varying degrees of empathy and detail as to why that is. In the most recent email, in addition to doubling down on the message “we are not refunding your tuition,” Dean Allyson Green included a Vimeo link to a two minute and 16 second video in which the self-described choreographer and visual artist awkwardly dances and lip-syncs to R.E.M.’s “Losing My Religion.”

> We here at NYU Local would just like to say: what the fuck is this.

> I mean,

> Allyson.

> What the fuck.

> We get it. You’re stressed. It’s a stressful time. People are mad, a lot of them at you. But what the fuck are you doing???

> We get that the financials of a private university are complicated. We get that you can’t just wave a wand and give people their tuition. It might even be the case that those students are in the wrong. Let’s talk about it! But even if they are, how could you possibly think this would do anything but piss everyone off. Like, did you think about this for even a second?

> The video is not cute. It’s uncomfortable to watch, it goes on for too long, you end it by staring at the camera for a good eight seconds, none of it is working in the way you think it’s working. Maybe you’re a dancer, and the way you work through stress is by dancing, but the number of steps between that and filming and uploading this video to the internet is SIMPLY TOO MANY. WHAT WERE YOU THINKING?!]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 04:12:51 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> I had no immune system for months after my bone marrow transplant. Here’s how I avoided viral illness, and how you can, too. It’s easier than you think.

Wash your hands more! Great article. Seriously read it.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:09:29 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> Physical and Mental Health tips for COVID 19 | Nell Watson, COVID 19 Task Force

Vid has lots of detail, e.g. copper tape and short fingernails. Information dense.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 17:46:06 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 17:31:39 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

[video from tweet](

[response tweet with 3 images](



Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:25:20 +0000
Discussion Tree Resources curi Discussion Trees With Example

And especially]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:10:20 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> NY Coronavirus Peak Worse And Coming Sooner Than Expected: Cuomo

> "We haven't flattened the curve. The curve is actually increasing," he said. "In many ways we have exhausted every option available to us."

> A 21-year-old woman with no underlying conditions has died after contracting coronavirus, according to her family.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:02:57 +0000
Anne B Anne Discussion
I think it’s doable. The only things I’ve committed to doing at a particular frequency are 1 and 3 once a day, and those don’t take very long each day.

I could be overreaching and making too many errors on the Simply Scheme stuff or something else. I wouldn’t necessarily know it if I was.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:29:50 +0000
Anne B Anne Discussion
> [10:37 AM] Kate: […] I wonder if there are things you can do to encourage vs discourage second-handedness.
> [10:38 AM] curi: there are many. recently i've been giving less advice and responding to ppl less.

I think this has helped me. I’ve been less focused on what I think curi and other people want me to do and I’ve been using my own judgment more. However, I do want more than zero suggestions and criticism, both so I can learn from their content and so I can get practice in responding to them.

Maybe it would help if it wasn’t just curi giving me advice and criticism, but other people too? I don’t know.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:28:44 +0000
Plan Update Anne B Anne Discussion
> Continue to try to keep the following in mind, reminding myself at least a few times a week:
> - have a low error rate
> - do postmortems
> - remember that it’s my responsibility and right to decide what I do, based on reasons and not emotions
> - don’t feel frustrated by problems; enjoy learning
> - focus on the real world rather than the social world
> - notice when I’m emotional or uncomfortable

I got tired of checking this stuff consciously so I stopped. I want to go back to doing it once a day.

2. In Simply Scheme, I worked through all of Chapter 2 and started working on Chapter 3.

3. Some of the other projects I was thinking of were making my own website and sharing my daily karate practice. I got both of those started.

> Also in my current plan: Write down a summary of what FI work I do every day.
I did this just about every day. I’ll continue.

**New plan for going forward**

1. Check and think about the below list once a day:
- have a low error rate
- do postmortems
- remember that it’s my responsibility and right to decide what I do, based on reasons and not emotions
- don’t feel frustrated by problems; enjoy learning
- focus on the real world rather than the social world
- notice when I’m emotional or uncomfortable

2. Continue with Simply Scheme as I have been.

3. Continue my karate practice as I have been.

4. I've been taking notes on more things that I read and listen to. I want to continue doing this. I might or might not share some of it.

5. I want to again focus on how I receive suggestions, and also explicitly include criticism as well as suggestions. So in addition to the once a day thing in 1. above, every time I get a suggestion or criticism, I want to:
- stop and think before responding
- write down (for myself) reasons for agreeing or disagreeing with it
- remember that it's my responsibility to judge whether or not to follow it.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:19:45 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Virus cases feared "rampant" in Japan, emergency task force launched

patio11 gave 2 previous twitter hints that CCP virus is bad in Japan. Now he's tweeted this article.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 10:42:48 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 06:52:18 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 06:01:44 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> NYC politicians and health officials urged New Yorkers to go to movies and participate in parades, characterizing concerns about coranvirus as “misinformation”

has 4 screenshots of examples, then other info e.g.:

> In reply to petition signed by 108,000 demanding closure of schools NYC schools chancellor Richard Carranza said schools would remain open until “108,000 epidemiologists” did the same.


> DeBlasio reversed course on his policy of keeping schools and businesses open and encouraging New Yorkers to go about their lives only after some top health officials threatened to resign]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 21:48:22 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 21:46:10 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 21:00:19 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Doctor recalls witnessing patient killed inside ICU; G7 discuss combating CCP virus | China in Focus

One of the news stories: China lies they donated 150k tests to Czech Republic. Czech Republic says they paid for them and the tests are faulty with an 80% error rate.

Another story: man in China reports watching doctor murder an old man because he didn't have money and no one wanted to pay for his medical bills so they just wanted to get rid of him. Man says this is common. When the man noticed the murder in progress and asked questions, he was coerced to participate in it with his own hands. Apparently in China, if patients don't pay, doctors and nurses get forced to pay for them.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 20:56:01 +0000
New York Hospital Vid curi The CCP Coronavirus
Watch this NYT video. It's from a medical worker at an NY hospital. *It's bad.*]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 20:42:58 +0000
Disinfecting Groceries and Mail and Packages Andy Dufresne What To Do About Coronavirus
That's basically what I was doing with groceries for the last couple of weeks. I hadn't been removing bread from its bag though - that was a good suggestion.

I have a designated intake area I use to process stuff coming in from outside.

For mail, papers, any small packages that can tolerate some heat: We have a large metal box that can still fit in our oven. It's just something that was holding a bunch of bolts in the garage - nothing special but I don't actually remember where I got it. Anyway, I leave the lid off the box, and when stuff comes in that I'll want to handle with heat it goes in the box. Once a day I preheat the oven to 160 F, put the lid on the box, put the box in the oven, set a timer for 30 minutes, come back later when its cool, then I can use everything in the box.

For large packages or stuff that might be heat sensitive it's harder and I don't have a single approach. Right now I'm letting them sit for a day or 2, spraying and/or wiping the outer box with bleach rag, then opening. Depending on what's inside I may put it in the sun for an hour (UV), wipe it with bleach rag, wash it with soap and water, or let it have additional sitting time. I don't have clear standards for what to do in advance.

After touching anything from outside before it has been processed, I wash hands. I try to do things like pick up stuff with 1 hand and use other to close and lock doors. If I can't, I wipe down the door handles I touched with bleach rag after washing hands.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:41:17 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Coronavirus - 21 Million Cellphones Disappeared in China

Video has various bits of info about china.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 16:49:05 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
> The news media have begun to impose blackouts on President Donald Trump’s coronavirus briefings to the American public. On Monday evening, multiple news outlets cut away from the president’s briefing before he finished.

> Far-left outlets like the Washington Post, NBC News, the Atlantic, CNN, the Boston Globe, etc., want to put an end to broadcasting Trump’s briefings; the idea being to block Americans from hearing directly from their president so these massive media corporations can censor whatever the president says that they do not approve of.

> Just writing the above sounds preposterous, like something outlandish, like something out of a dystopian novel where mega-corporations rule over everything.

> For those of you who doubt this, here is the Washington Post:

> > Radical change is necessary. The cable networks and other news organizations that are taking the president’s briefings as live feeds should stop doing so.

> > Should they cover the news that’s produced in them? Of course. Thoroughly and relentlessly — with context and fact-checking built in to every step and every stage.

> Here is far-left CNN staffer Jake Tapper:

> > If the president is not capable of leading stably and effectually, he should, at least, for his own reputation, for the good of the country, stop making things worse and consider leaving the podium to others.

> And now the blackouts have begun.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 16:16:29 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Film Crew Documents Life in Wuhan Amid COVID-19 Epidemic

Lots of shots of mostly empty public places + sad music.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:36:03 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> While the world is dealing with the Corona Pandemic... some see it as an opportunity to attack Israel with lies and anti-Semitic slurs.

2min video. Canary Mission is a good group to follow.

story about a wife taking care of her husband who has CCP virus. focuses on emotion and storytelling.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:33:32 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> The Censored (by Google) Hydroxychloroquinine paper

Haven't read it, don't know if it's good, but don't think it should be censored/deplatformed. It's about a CCP virus medicine.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 12:16:02 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud


> During the 1970s and early 1980s, the majority of NPR funding came from the federal government.

Apparently it doesn't receive much government funding today, but the legacy of government funding still made a big impact on how it's perceived and helped it get big.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:46:40 +0000
The Government Is Killing Us curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Meanwhile, we’re being required to denature the alcohol to make it not that it doesn’t get TAXED AS AN ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE, just in case you wanted to drink a 160-proof ethanol/glycerin/hydrogen peroxide cocktail. But denaturing agents are nearly impossible to find.

Twitter thread says how the government is limiting hand sanitizer production.

> Wondered why it's been so hard to ramp up production of surgical masks and respirators? Why haven't private companies flooded into the market to meet peak demand?

> Because they are regulated medical devices & new versions require FDA approval which can take months to obtain. 1/

The thread says some of the regulatory hurdles:

> - do a compositional side-by-side analysis of your mask vs all other masks currently sold. Hire a few materials scientists, okay.

> - measure "tensile strength" & "impact resistance." Hire the Mythbusters and have them whack it with a hammer.

> - perform detailed "risk analysis," for fluid/bacteria resistance and "flammability." Hmmm, better open a branch office for all those extra materials scientists and medical researchers. This is multiple major studies (though a Boring Company flamethrower might work in a pinch.)

> - but wait, don't forget that masks touch skin! What if it gives you a rash!!! Okay, fine, we'll fill out the "standard ISO-10993," yeah, you know, the one for “Biological Evaluation of Medical Devices Part 1: Evaluation and Testing." Sprinkle in a couple more clinicians.

More at]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:34:36 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Tucker: America won't be the same after the pandemic

Good 7min vid]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:17:23 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> India sets 21-day 'complete lockdown' to stop coronavirus spread

Sounds like the hammer. Good news.

> Washington governor issues two-week stay-at-home order

Also sounds like the hammer.

> New York mayor calls for nationwide US lockdown

Yes please.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:12:49 +0000
Freeze Weinstein vs. Veritas
One good thing is that Weinstein has an audience that generally dislikes O'Keefe, so him giving O'Keefe a platform could improve the reach of Veritas and change some people's notions of O'Keefe.

I like O'Keefe's approach to journalism which is essentially facts first, moralizing later (or never). He doesn't push opinions and just releases raw footage and conversations. Weinstein's argument that O'Keefe was following the letter of the law but making people uncomfortable by breaking the spirit of it seemed flawed to me. O'Keefe made good points that it's a rights infringement to prevent someone from writing down what someone else said to them, and it's the exact same thing with a recording. He also explained that he never releases stuff that is needlessly harmful to people and only releases topical footage that the public deserves to see.

I'm curious about what Veritas' team's process is like in terms of vetting footage. O'Keefe mentioned that it costs $1M to air a single story, which was fascinating to hear.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 01:46:58 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:18:55 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:17:11 +0000 March 6 vs March 24 curi The CCP Coronavirus

March 24:

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:05:59 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus


George Reisman didn't reply when I told him I disagreed with him about coronavirus.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:03:36 +0000
2 Strains? curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Look at the phylogenetic tree with 164 genomes (and counting) and explain to me where it makes sense to split it into exactly two pieces. It doesn't matter how they decided to make this distinction, in the end that's what they're basically doing. Am I misunderstanding something here?

Question seems reasonable. The answer he got on reddit is "it appears to just be a terrible paper that should never have been published." With info:

> Why I think the Tang et al. paper should be retracted and the media should avoid spreading the idea of "two types of Covid-19"

More details at:

Conclusion is basically that the two strains idea is dangerous fake news.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:53:53 +0000
curi Politics Discussion
> Tucker: What will higher education look like after coronavirus?

People may realize unis are a rip off and online education is way more cheap/efficient.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:46:43 +0000
Masks curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Sometimes you’ll see “PM” followed by a number, like PM2.5. That refers to particles of diameter 2.5 microns, or micrometers, or less. Microns are small – 1 millionth of a meter. Pollen particles are often 10 microns or bigger. Bacteria are often about 1 micron.

> In fact, smaller particles, like 0.01-micron particles are even easier to capture than those 0.3-micron particles!

Really small stuff does not follow your intuitions. Check out the article for an explanation.

> What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks?

> Can DIY Masks Protect Us from Coronavirus?]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:33:49 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> [China] marshaled 10% *of the entire healthcare staff of the entire country of 1.4 billion people* to Wuhan (doctors, nurses, everyone)

Article is interesting in various other ways, but also has flaws. I think he overestimates the virus fizzling out in the summer and he doesn't distinguish between how many people are *actually* infected and the posted stats about how many have shown up as infected in a test (which can be limited by testing more than virus spread). Also CCP virus is significantly more infectious than flu according to the stats I've seen. Also his technical info on masks isn't very good.

**Better info on masks**:

I've read before about the two strains, S and L, but I don't know much detail. e.g.

Here's a reddit thread on strains that I haven't read yet (note the first comment says the paper is terrible):

article has info on current quarantine measures in Wuhan.

> In Italy, during the early days of the outbreak, Italians in a town hall meeting mocked an official who was wearing a mask. He threw the mask off in anger, and declared that he had visited three coronavirus hotspots and was wearing the mask for *their* protection, not his. But that if they wanted his mask off, then he'd take it off, and Godspeed to them.

The info about almost everyone dying being age 60+ with other health conditions is misleading. The rate of younger people being hospitalized is a lot higher than that. They die slower. We won't know how dangerous it is to healthy younger people until a lot more of them have recovered and gotten out of the hospital. Quoting from earlier on this webpage:

> In New York state, where there are now more confirmed coronavirus cases than in France or South Korea, nearly 54% of hospitalized coronavirus patients are between 18 and 49, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Saturday.

Chase Amante also linked this video which had some interesting clips from Wuhan:

(As always, bear in mind the info coming out of Wuhan is biased and selectively censored by the CCP.)]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:31:17 +0000
Alisa The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:16:29 +0000 Chase Amante: Can You Still Meet People During Coronavirus? Alisa The CCP Coronavirus
- Marshaling 10% of the entire country's healthcare workers to one city: Wuhan.
- No one can enter an apartment complex who doesn't live there.
- Mandatory temperature checks upon entering or exiting any apartment complex.
- Mandatory mask wearing outside. Deliberately getting your unmasked face close to another in public is an arrest-able offense.
- Everyone who works outside the home must work in rotating shifts: one day on, two days off.
- Universal (?) curfews from 10 PM to 6 PM.

It then briefly compares what China did to what France, Italy, and U.K. did/are doing.

So far, the article seems roughly believable, though the CCP was probably even more brutal than it describes, and it omits any discussion of the CCP's lies and suppression of whistle-blowers.

I'm less convinced about the stuff it goes on to say (described below).

It says only people over 60 need to worry about SARS-CoV-2:

> [I]f you are under 60 and don't have [health] problems... it is... not a threat to you... pretty much at all.

As far as masks are concerned, it says only N95 masks offer any protection to the wearer.

> There are some reports saying it causes lasting damage to the lungs, liver, kidneys, and testes.

It goes on to argue that healthy people under 60 don't need to worry about long-lasting liver, kidney, and testes damage, but it doesn't say anything more about the lasting lung damage.

The rest of the article is about meeting people.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:15:33 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Good news channel. I subscribed recently.

This episode reports about people in Wuhan jumping off buildings to kill themselves. Says many people in Wuhan have relapsed and tested positive again after getting back from hospitals.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:07:52 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 24 Mar 2020 19:55:35 +0000 Ann Coulter Sucks curi The CCP Coronavirus


I replied:

> wtf? read your own charts. Plus this comparison ignores problems like the hospitals getting full (raises mortality rate dramatically), non-fatal permanent harm, and that the coronavirus data is not accurate yet (actually even the flu data is bad afaik).

Here's one of the better replies that isn't just flaming her without explanation:


[1] Ratioed means high replies to RTs or likes. It indicates ppl hate the tweet because replies are where you say negative things b/c there is no downvote button. For tweets ppl like, a lot more ppl will like it than reply, but for tweets they hate you get a ton of replies.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 19:29:09 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul's father, former Texas Congressman Ron Paul, penned an article titled "The Coronavirus Hoax," just six days before his son became the first U.S. senator to test positive for COVID-19

Despite my free market views, I never liked Ron Paul (I'm pretty skeptical of Rand Paul too but he doesn't seem as bad but I haven't researched it). Here's me in 2015 to FI list:

> This should be a satire, but it’s a real libertarian – Ron Paul – who is much worse than the shitlib interviewing him.

> Wait until after the nukes land on Tel Aviv and New York City before doing anything, or else we’re the bad guys! sigh

Ron Paul said that all preemptive attacks are initiation of force. The interviewer was also unimpressed btw, e.g.:

> MORGAN: You're not seriously defending Ahmadinejad, are you?

Ron Paul is also an anti-semite. There are some other FI and [RP](!forum/rational-politics-list) threads criticizing Ron Paul.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 18:58:14 +0000
Massive Fatality Undercounting? curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?

> The country's high death toll is due to an ageing population, overstretched health system and the way fatalities are reported

> “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

> “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

> This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death

The article spins this as Italy overcounting deaths by a factor of 8.33 but I read as mostly meaning that some other countries are majorly undercounting.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 18:49:05 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

I commented on one at]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 17:25:45 +0000
curi Social Reality and Real Reality
Tucker explains this in terms of caring more about being woke and virtue signaling than people's lives.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 17:17:26 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

I talked about it on stream]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 12:13:49 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Tue, 24 Mar 2020 00:26:50 +0000 curi Politics Discussion
Protect people. Defend people's lives and rights.

That means things like closing borders and, yes, locking lots of stuff down. Going about life as usual will kill many millions worldwide. People trying to do that are killing others and must be stopped.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 00:23:03 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Italy: Crematorium running out of space may be forced to stop accepting coffins

Video is in Italian but more English info in video description. Shows a bunch of coffins. The crematorium can't burn the bodies fast enough so they're piling up.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 21:21:34 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus

i looked up actual paper

> SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted (Takuya Yamagishi, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, personal communication, 2020).

that doesn't really give any details, so I wonder if they just stopped testing after 17 days and it could last even longer...]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:07:46 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Mathematical model of Coronavirus spread in USA.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 16:53:06 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
One time donation on paypal:

Or monthly subscribtion: (it's like patreon with reward tiers)]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:46:15 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> The virus is of zoonotic origin. March 17th update: The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2: "Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus." (Source study). A genome analysis published March 20th suggests two viruses may have combined (source).

Zoonotic origin = comes from animals.

that study is total bullshit FYI

i think it's likely SARS-CoV-2 comes from animals, due to circumstantial evidence, but that study can't disprove lab, offers no real insight, and should be assumed to be Chinese propaganda.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:09:22 +0000
Reddit Virus Info Megapost curi The CCP Coronavirus
I wrote a reply:

>> [AWAITING PEER REVIEW] A new study indicates COVID-19 can survive in the air for up to 3 hours, and several days on surfaces, depending on the surface (up to 3 days on plastic, up to 2 days on metal, up to 1 day on cardboard). (Article | Study). Here's a shadowgraph imaging of people breathing (source). Unfortunately it is a bit misleading as it does not show drop dispersion, but gets the point across.

> This is confusing at most vs. at least. E.g. they tested after 3 hours and the virus was still in the air. Then they stopped the experiment. So it's not living "up to" 3 hours, it's "at least" 3 hours.

> Tons of news articles, as well as the abstracts of some of the studies, have been spreading misinformation about this. Basically all the claims floating around about how long the virus lasts are "at least" not "up to"/"at most".

> Also we're dealing with half-lives here so giving a specific amount of time is a rough approximation about when it's safe to touch. But I haven't read anything actually saying what amount of virus is safe to touch. Instead, people seem to basically assume, for convenience, that the smallest amount of virus we can detect/measure is dangerous but anything less than that is safe.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:04:22 +0000
Alisa Open Discussion: Economics
curi said:

> ... giving up or failing should be a moderately big deal. A notable event, not a dime a dozen. It'd be a thing that goes on a list of projects and their outcomes and is considered important data about your life, capabilities, etc.

Justin Mallone replied (emphasis mine):

> If "pick anything to focus on" means "commit to discussing an intellectual/philosophy topic for an indefinite period of time, possibly years, including all relevant/related topics, until stuff gets throughly resolved, lest the failure to do so be considered a kind of failure/**breach of trust/fraudulent misrepresentation of interest** in the topic" then no.

curi said nothing about fraud or breach of trust. Justin added that.

It looks to me like curi had in mind basically that **Justin himself** would consider it a big deal if Justin stopped discussing before a conclusion was reached.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:55:36 +0000
_khaaan The CCP Coronavirus
> I think RTing this thread was an error by @_khaaan


>> Please don't stay indoors because of all the unscientific scolding going around. Sunshine and fresh air are good for you. Just don't get close to other people, avoid the crowds and crowded places. (Wear sunscreen, I guess, if it's really sunny).

> It's typical half-measures contrary to hammer and dance.

I see what you mean. I undid the RT.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:48:48 +0000
Anonymous Coronavirus Solution Mon, 23 Mar 2020 00:17:46 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
> !!!! In New York state, where there are now more confirmed coronavirus cases than in France or South Korea, nearly 54% of hospitalized coronavirus patients are between 18 and 49, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Saturday.

Links to

> Younger patients are being hospitalized more in the U.S. and Europe than in China, and that has contributed to massive supply shortages]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:07:40 +0000
curi Open Discussion: Economics
Your pessimism, negativity, etc., are totally unnecessary and avoidable. They are due to your own misconceptions that you are shielding from critical discussion. It doesn't have to be this way.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 19:46:39 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
From Feb 4-9, Canada sent 16 tons of PPE to China. PPE is:

> personal protective equipment, such as clothing, face shields, masks, goggles and gloves

Canadians will die from this altruism.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 19:39:19 +0000
Coronavirus Errors curi The CCP Coronavirus

It's typical half-measures contrary to hammer and dance.


And I think this tweet from George Reisman was an error:

It's positive about this article which people may want to criticize:

It says e.g.

> We are told that we must emulate Italy or China, but there is no evidence that the flailing, despotic measures taken in these countries reduced the incidence of coronavirus. The most basic error in science is to assume that because B happens after A, that B was caused by A.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 19:34:31 +0000
Anonymous Coronavirus Solution Sun, 22 Mar 2020 18:27:17 +0000 Alisa What To Do About Coronavirus Sun, 22 Mar 2020 17:43:49 +0000 Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 16:35:12 +0000