curi blog discussion Explanations for the curious en-us curi Deplatforming and Fraud
> .@IngrahamAngle Tweeted about this story of a man who had Coronavirus that said Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin saved his life.

> Twitter locked her account for it and made her delete it.

> Man who had Coronavirus and says Experimental Drugs saved his life says it’s “Truly Un-American” for people to not want the drugs to work because President Trump mentioned them.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 20:16:56 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Choir meets March 10 in Washington state. 60 people. 45 now diagnosed with CCP Virus. 2 dead already.

they used hand sanitizer and avoided hugging and handshakes and stuff (mostly but not perfectly, i assume)

> The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

but the authorities kept saying don't wear masks and if you don't have symptoms don't worry.... ><

> It's Time to Face Facts, America: Masks Work]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 18:15:54 +0000
Forgot the link GISTE Slow the coronavirus spread so we can test way more
I forgot to include the link to the article.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 17:14:37 +0000
More on the last comment GISTE Slow the coronavirus spread so we can test way more
> But local officials say there hasn't been a new case of COVID-19 there since March 13.

> Around 3,300 people were tested, even if they had no symptoms. [this happened more than 2 weeks ago]

> Nearly 3 per cent — or 89 Vo residents — were infected with COVID-19.

> Every Vo resident who tested positive for the virus was put in quarantine in their homes.

> The researchers decided against sending patients to hospital to prevent them spreading the disease there.

> After two weeks of quarantine, the researchers carried out another round of mass testing in Vo.

> The rate of COVID-19 infection had dropped from nearly 3 per cent to 0.41 per cent.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 17:10:15 +0000
> "On the second testing that was carried out, we recorded a 90 percent drop in the rate of positive cases. And of all the ones who were positive in the second testing, eight people were asymptomatic," said Professor Andrea Crisanti, an infections expert at Imperial College London on sabbatical at the University of Padua in Italy, Sky reports.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 16:55:14 +0000
curi Open Discussion 2 (2019)
> This is How China Beat the Corona Virus - should we copy?

Some info about Chinese actions and oppression.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:53:59 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Don't head to your cottage to wait out COVID-19 pandemic, Canadians warned

For city folk, just going somewhere rural to avoid disasters ain't so easy. Even if you already own property there, you may not be welcome (and with a variety of good reasons).]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:41:30 +0000
curi Open Discussion 2 (2019)]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:35:38 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:31:36 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Tampa megachurch crowded with worshipers, despite social distancing orders

They say they're essential and they don't want to turn people away in a time of need. But they also say this:

> "We brought in 13 machines that basically kill every virus in the place," Howard-Browne said. "If they sneeze it shoots it down like at 100 miles per hour and it will neutralize it in a split second."]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 12:21:50 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
Popper himself already provided an alternative to those: judging ideas by critical discussion/thinking. Popper (particularly early on) attempted to formalize that and make some points more specific and mathematical. If you reject that formalization, it doesn't leave any gap in CR. You still have the broad answer, the big picture, the overall explanation of what to do and why, as well as dozens of other particulars Popper gave. There's certainly room to fill in more details and give more guidance on various specifics, as there is with every area of CR. That's something I work on.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 11:47:21 +0000
way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" N The CCP Coronavirus
> This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia [*and MinutePhysics*] about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.

Graph from the video available here:]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 06:58:03 +0000
Hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 GISTE Coronavirus Solution


Company awarded $750,000 by US government to do a 1-month study of Hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19:


Hydroxychloroquine is an existing drug, e.g. used for malaria and lupus. So it's already in production and production is now being ramped up.

FDA changed their rules to allow the use of this drug for emergency cases even though no study has been done yet. I hope this policy continues in the future for all diseases.]]>
Mon, 30 Mar 2020 06:25:54 +0000
kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Mon, 30 Mar 2020 05:13:03 +0000 curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Sun, 29 Mar 2020 22:05:33 +0000 kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Sun, 29 Mar 2020 21:26:36 +0000 Anonymous Deplatforming and Fraud]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:13:32 +0000
Politics: Coronavirus and Trump curi The CCP Coronavirus
David Horowitz continues earning my respect. He's being reasonable (unlike, say, Ann Coulter, Twitter's censors or the Democrats).

The article is mostly politics, not coronavirus info.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 18:41:46 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:21:10 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Coronavirus: Italy becoming impatient with lockdown - and social unrest is brewing

Hard to tell how much is related to actual missed meals and hunger, and how much isn't.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:06:18 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:02:58 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

The age distribution of who has CCP Virus is a lot lower than the stats in many countries are showing.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 11:00:48 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:32:14 +0000
curi Second-handedness Examples

> One thing I've struggled with personally - I told my family in early February that we should expect the virus to hit here and should buy what we'd need and plan to soon stop leaving our home. I wasn't that direct in a public article for three more weeks. Why not?

> I didn't want to sound alarmist. I didn't want to step out ahead of public health officials, who were still telling us that the risk was low. I wanted to tell readers what scientists were saying, and they too were trying not to sound alarmist.

Kelsey Piper on reddit about it:

> For what it's worth, I don't think I failed to say more about coronavirus because I felt pressure from Vox's political/cultural environment. (I do experience that sometimes, on things like 'the travel ban from China was a good idea', but it's a distinct thing and one I think I'm much better at noticing.) I might write more about this on some medium that's not Twitter, but I think the thing that made it hard to shout "fire" was much more "having a position of perceived authority and reasonableness" than anything specific to that position being at Vox. I had a bunch of templates for how reasonable people talk and what kinds of things they say, and they do say things like 'many public health experts tell me they're underprepared for a pandemic', and they don't say things like 'every American should be preparing right now to spend the next six weeks under a lockdown without historical or legal precedent'.
> What it felt like from the inside was that the implications of my beliefs were too ridiculous for me to feel comfortable committing them to public scrutiny. People on Twitter would yell at me and other people would quietly lose respect for me and I might be wrong and it would be sufficiently embarrassing that rather than contemplate whether this tradeoff was the correct one (yes, it was), I just held all those implications in abeyance, not assigning them a specific probability, considering them likely enough to be worth preparing for but not, like, likely enough that I would want to be associated with them.
> I think the correct strategy to have prevented this is actually kind of simple (and yes, I'm now doing it.) When I said things to my family, I should have put an actual number on them, instead of saying vague things that didn't require me to notice their implications. I should've asked Scott if we could sit down for a weekend and figure out the most important questions and agree on our best guesses. If I'd done that - just nailed my beliefs down enough and propagated all their implications - then it would've been obvious that writing more, faster, sooner, spending social capital at work to do so if necessary (it likely wouldn't have been -- again, no one at Vox pushed back on the articles I did want to write, at all!), was worth it.
> There was, separately from that, a thing where I had compartmentalized my family as a domain where I had heroic responsibility to actually keep them alive no matter what happened and my job as a domain where I had mere ordinary responsibility-to-have-done-as-much-as-one-reasonably-could, which was uncomfortable to notice but which I again don't really think is about conforming with Vox (it's mostly about the fact that pointing heroic responsibility at one's EA job is emotionally exhausting and always results in tearful breakdowns about how spending time on reddit literally kills people). I'm thinking about how to fix it but I haven't come up with anything yet. This one is clearly really important, but it's also really rough -- I have definitely tried just flipping on the 'I am responsible for these articles the way I'm responsible for my children' switch at work and the result is being crushed by guilt and worry.
> If someone is in a similar situation I think my advice to them would be to notice the desire to be reasonable, have a place where you are explicitly and deliberately unreasonable, and to pin all your beliefs to the wall with actual numbers so that you notice if you have anything in a vague 'likely enough to act on it for some things but not likely enough to have examined all its implications' bucket.

Matt Stoller deleted his similar public admission of second-handedness, so here's a screenshot:

Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:30:17 +0000
She'll Say Whatever She Thinks YOU "Want To Hear" curi Second-handedness Examples
Couldn’t find this article online so pasting it:

When a lot of guys start out, they approach girls thinking women will give them flat facts.
Ask a girl a question, she'll just give you some facts.
Like, what is her favorite color? Blue!
That's a fact, easy.
How about this one: how old is she?
Well, 22!
And... she might be.
Of course she might also be lying.
She might really be 18 but doesn't want you to think she's too young.
Or perhaps she's 28 but is afraid you'll think she's too old.
So now, you see, it's begun to get more complicated.
How about ask her how much she likes her job?
Well, she hates it!
At least that is what she might say if she thinks you think an office job like hers is so stuck up.
If she thinks you are another office worker like her, and one who thinks office work is grand, she might say she likes it fine.
What about how many guys she's been with?
If you seem nervous, she'll realize you have no business asking this, and tell you as much.
If you're straightforward, but seem like a boyfriend candidate, she might say, "Not that many. Only four."
If you're sexy about it, and she feels like you are a powerful, sexual guy she can really open up to, she might admit, "Thirteen."
Which one's the truth? Is it *four...* or *thirteen?*
Women will deflate their numbers smaller for men they want in relationships.
However, sometimes they will EXAGGERATE numbers for guys they think are a lot more experienced than them.
They don't want to look like clueless bumpkins, after all.
Women tell you what they think YOU want to hear.
They decide what they think you want to hear based on your actions and behavior with them.
And the truth a woman gives YOU about herself may well be totally different from the one she gives someone else.

I like ambitious women.
A lot of guys don't. Most guys like their women submissive. And that's fine too.
There's just something about a cute sexy girl with a fire inside her who is trying to "get somewhere" in her life I find adorable, though.
Anyway, something I have noticed over the years is that women will instinctively portray themselves as a lot more ambitious with me than they do with other men.
They will confess to big dreams and goals and aspirations with me, that I find out only later many of them are not that serious about.
At the time I first meet them though, they paint themselves as TOTAL high fliers!
Even the women who are lazy layabouts will do this.
They do it because they figure out it is what I want, and they KNOW they have to do it to hold my interest.
Because honestly, if a girl tells me she just likes to lie around and watch movies and wants nothing more from life than that, I lose all interest in her.
Even if she is BEAUTIFUL... I just find her so *boring*.
I don't want to be bored.
I want the people around me to INTEREST me.
Most women sense that this is a requirement of mine, and they do what they can to fulfill it.
The truth is, most women are not really all that ambitious at all.
But around me, something like 75% of women BECOME super ambitious!
Funny how that works, huh?
It is the same way that a guy who thinks women are all "good girls" who do not like physical intimacy finds all women are exactly that.
Every girl he talks to is an asexual prude who wants nothing to do with anything remotely sexy.
However, every now and again, he spies his asexual prude girls getting all hot and bothered with some random sexy guy, and his world implodes.
How did it happen?
How did that guy "trick" her?
How did he manage to turn on this totally asexual prude girl?
Well, that guy did NOT trick her.
Instead, the girl just told and showed each guy what he wanted to hear and see.
The guy who thinks girls are all asexual prudes wanted to see a girl who was an asexual prude. So she gave him that.
When later on she ran into a guy who thinks women are all naughty sensual vixens, she showed HIM *that*.
There is nothing weird or unusual here.
It is just like how if a guy gets in your face trying to fight, he will see your "tough guy side" as you bristle to defend yourself...
... meanwhile if another guy comes up being chummy, cracking funny jokes, and offering you a beer, he will see your "cool guy side" instead.
People in a social environment will reflect back whatever they are getting from you.
Men do this.
You do this.
Women do it too.
Women do it to YOU.

Every moment of every day, you tell the people around you what you're looking for.
You may not realize it.
Often it's totally unconscious.
And yet, you DO it.
There are different ways men act when they're hoping for or expecting certain answers.
When you ask a woman if she goes out a lot, for example, she can feel whether you want her to say yes or you want her to say no.
Most women will not COMPLETELY lie (though some will).
However, most women will strongly ADJUST their answers to match what they believe you want to hear.
If she can tell you're uncomfortable as you ask how often she goes out, and detects you might be judging her, you are going to get a "Not often."
If on the other hand she sees you are a cool party guy and you expect her to be a party person too, you will get something more like "I go out!" even if she doesn't.
These little adjustments like this influence HOW a woman behaves with you.
The ripple effects aren't just little.
They're BIG!
The same girl will be reserved and aloof with one man, and all up on another (equally attractive) man, due to the read she gets from each guy.
Even if she LIKES both guys the same!
She believes one guy needs one thing to continue liking her (or like her more). And the other guy needs a different thing.
And she spins herself into whatever she thinks each guy needs.
If you don't think you're putting signals out like this... you are!
And the women around you pick up on them!
So... how do you fix this "unconscious" communication?
The only way is to pay MORE attention to yourself with women, and keep an eye on how you come across.
When you notice you don't come across in a way helpful to what you want her to do, change that.
Change it with THAT girl, if you can.
If you can't, change it with the NEXT girl.
It may take a few tries to get right.
However, you will find you can change a lot of your nonverbal communication.
The most important part here is the AWARENESS you are putting these signals out there.
You need to know they are there before you can start to change them.
Women are picking up on them.
And then, they are telling you what you want to hear. And showing you what you want to say.
Women aren't "fact machines."
They adjust their "facts" based on WHOM they think they're talking to.
If women are not telling you what you THINK you want to hear, there may just be a clue as to why in what signals you send them.
**You may be telling them to give you different "facts" than the ones you think you want!**
Once you realize this, you can start to tweak the signals you send.
Make yourself come across as more comfortable, for instance.
Or more encouraging on things you want to encourage.
Or discouraging, if you're talking about prudish things.
As you change the signals you put out, you will change the way women PRESENT themselves to you... often in some pretty big ways.
Ciao for now,
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:16:43 +0000
Anne B Second-handedness Examples
Attilio Fontana, the governor of Lombardy, in Italy:

> “Unfortunately, the numbers are not very nice, the number of infected people has increased a bit too much compared to the line of the past few days,” said Fontana. “We will have to evaluate if this is an exceptional fact determined by some particular episode or if this is an increasing trend, which would be a little embarrassing.”

He talks about the possibility of being a little embarrassed, not about whether his government is doing the right things to help keep more people alive.]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 05:30:29 +0000
Anonymous Deplatforming and Fraud
This article talks about some SPLC guy demonizing VDare.

SPLC guy says:

> The castle is also securely embedded on a hill and surrounded by iron gates, making it hard for antiracist demonstrators to access it should VDARE decide to host a conference there. Well-attended counterdemonstrations have had a deleterious impact on the racist right’s ability to organize in public in recent years, making secure locations appealing to white nationalists like those linked to VDARE.

The SPLC's tweet about his article got a bunch of threatening replies. Read the article for details. Just taking one example, somebody tweeted:

> Aluminum powder mixed with iron oxide.
> Or Gallium if you're trying to be sneaky.

VDare says:

> That’s what we must call a really serious threat. The first part (aluminum powder and iron oxide) is the recipe for thermite, as used in arson and sabotage. And gallium reacts with aluminum in peculiar ways.

> I don’t know all the details, but I’m not trained in metallurgy, as “Dedwrekka” is. His Twitter profile reads “Questioning White Bio-male. He/Him/Yall. Veteran. Animation, Woodworking, Metalworking, Sculpting, Makeing".

> It doesn’t take much in the way of internet sleuthing to establish that this guy threatening us with thermite is a college student in North Texas named Aaron, who is studying metalcrafts.

> I don’t want to “doxx” him in the usual sense. But if the FBI or other law enforcement agencies are interested, I’ll forward them the details.

> *And they should be*. This is a “terroristic threat” *across state lines*.

> This is just one more instance of the danger of the SPLC, which as Hayden notes in his article, has been targeting us specifically for almost twenty years.

Some disturbing things going on here:

1. VDare has had to deal with enough problems hosting their peaceful events that they felt they needed to buy a literal castle and rely on medieval physical security technology to protect them from mobs.

2. The mob is being whipped up by activists and issuing very specific threats about what criminal acts they might engage in.

3. The police will probably do nothing to stop this.

The situation is bad :-(]]>
Sun, 29 Mar 2020 04:18:27 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> They were ready to roll whenever disaster struck California: three 200-bed mobile hospitals that could be deployed to the scene of a crisis on flatbed trucks and provide advanced medical care to the injured and sick within 72 hours.

> Each hospital would be the size of a football field, with a surgery ward, intensive care unit and X-ray equipment. Medical response teams would also have access to a massive stockpile of emergency supplies: 50 million N95 respirators, 2,400 portable ventilators and kits to set up 21,000 additional patient beds wherever they were needed.

> In 2006, citing the threat of avian flu, then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced the state would invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a powerful set of medical weapons to deploy in the case of large-scale emergencies and natural disasters such as earthquakes, fires and pandemics.

Over $200 million was spent by a Republican who wanted to protect us. Then, to save money, it was defunded and dismantled, by a Democrat, in 2011, before being used.

> The annual savings for eliminating both programs? No more than $5.8 million per year

That's around 0.0045% of California's budget.

> “It’s the nearsightedness of political decision-making,” said Backer, who retired last year. “If you talked to the experts, we knew that pandemics were going to come around.”]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 17:42:58 +0000
curi Social Reality and Real Reality
> Tucker: How local leaders failed their cities [re coronavirus]

This is what it looks like to value social reality over real reality. They care more about keeping various social groups happy than about facts on the ground. But viruses don't listen to virtue signaling anymore than e.g. furnaces in *Atlas Shrugged* do...

> “You must give him a job, here, at the mills—but a nice, clean job, of course, with a desk and an office and a decent salary, where he wouldn’t have to be among your day laborers and your smelly furnaces.”

> “If one of my blast furnaces goes down, will I be able to keep it going by feeding your intention into it?”

> Nothing could have made you act against your judgment, and you would have rejected as wrong—as evil—any man who attempted to tell you that the best way to heat a furnace was to fill it with ice. Millions of men, an entire nation, were not able to deter you from producing Rearden Metal—because you had the knowledge of its superlative value and the power which such knowledge gives. But what I wonder about, Mr. Rearden, is why you live by one code of principles when you deal with nature and by another when you deal with men?”

> A young man with a look of chronic hurt and impertinence together, rushed up to him, crying, “I couldn’t help it, Mr. Rearden!” and launched into a speech of explanation. Rearden turned his back on him without a word. It was the assistant in charge of the pressure gauge of the furnace, a young man out of college.

> “Hank, I don’t think they care whether there’s a train or a blast furnace left on earth. We do.

Or an N95 mask, or a respirator.

> “Their factories will stop, then their furnaces and their radios. Then their electric light system will go.”

> “You’ll see,” he said, pacing the room. “You think they’re powerful—those giants of industry who’re so clever with motors and furnaces? They’ll be stopped! They’ll be stripped! They’ll be brought down!

> “I needed that furnace, Philip. It wasn’t my need that gave it to me.”

Here is the sort of social reality these people live in:

> Tucker Investigates: How did Chris Cuomo get into Yale?

Facts like how good they are at tests, and how well the meet the admissions standards, don't get in the way of kids from the right social circles meeting up at the right universities to social network with each other.]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 16:23:04 +0000
curi Open Discussion 2 (2019)]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 15:34:51 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Urns in Wuhan far exceed official CCP virus death toll; riot breaks out in virus-hit Hubei]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 14:53:08 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

I think it's really worth seeing.]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 07:10:27 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

The article doesn't say that. It says:

> But the *Guardiam* [sic] reports this afternoon that her death has not actually been recorded as a Covid-19 death:

They don't seem to know anything about what she died of. It may have been CCP Virus.]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 06:53:21 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 02:27:14 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sat, 28 Mar 2020 02:13:14 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
A few highlights from the thread of someone who got infected:

> I'm 38 and have no underlying health conditions.

> Anything over 180/120 [blood pressure] is classified as 'hypertensive crisis' (basically, heart attack/stroke territory). Without revealing what mine was, lets just say I was well, well in excess of this (again, I don't have an underlying issue). This was easily the most terrifying moment.

> I called my doctor friends and told them. "Time to call 999" they said - so I did. It took more than 15 minutes to speak with a representative; that's how overwhelmed the emergency services are. I told them my BP and that I have coronavirus.

> Ultimately they decided they couldn't respond to my call.

38, no underlying health conditions, mortal danger, and left at home with no ambulance and no help.

The poster has personal relationships with multiple doctors and had to self-treat at home using advice they gave him to lower his blood pressure.

Since he hasn't been hospitalized, this is a "mild" case in the stats. Or maybe not a case at all since he didn't actually get tested for coronavirus.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 21:12:47 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
Evolution adapts information to a purpose.

Knowledge is purpose-having information. (Solving a problem is a purpose.)

Fri, 27 Mar 2020 20:07:15 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud Fri, 27 Mar 2020 20:02:35 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
> China is re-closing all its movie theaters.

Why, unless they're lying about how contained the virus is?

> PSA: If you live in Tokyo or are responsible for people who are, you should act consistently with the belief that Tokyo will almost certainly have a scenario similar to New York.

> You can see last few tweets for news organizations sourcing on the record government projections.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 19:56:34 +0000
kieren Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas
Yes I believe so; ideas as replicators that go through the process of variation (conjecture), and selection (criticism).]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 19:54:34 +0000
Anonymous Deplatforming and Fraud]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 19:07:31 +0000
Andy Dufresne What To Do About Coronavirus
Unlike some other papers this one seems to have tested the virus on some surfaces until it wasn't detectable (instead of saying it was detectable after X days but not when it wasn't detectable).

I think it implies my process for mail is overkill. If the virus is undetectable on paper after only 3 hours at room temp, all I'd have to do is leave the mail in the box at least 3 hours after delivery even if the mailman was the infection source. My box is outside, but absent some strange weather that's going to be higher than room temp during the day for at least the next 6 months, plus it sits in the sun so it's even warmer than ambient temp.

BTW I recommend the mailbox I have. It allows me to remove the mail without touching anything the mailman touched other than the mail. It's:

I can open the bottom section (where the mail drops) using only the key, never touching the box itself. Also really good for protecting mail & small packages from theft.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 18:31:32 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> When New York Needed Him Most, Bill de Blasio Had His Worst Week As Mayor

> Shortly thereafter, he declined to cancel St. Patrick’s Day parade and then did. He resisted calls to cancel regular street sweeping and then did. He had a photo op at a 311 call center, where he told a caller who had just returned from Italy that she did not need to self-quarantine, advice that forced 311 to actually call the woman back and tell her to stay inside for 14 days. The mayor touted the city’s new, wide-scale testing capacity, only to have his Health Department announce that only hospitalized patients should be tested. He tweeted at Elon Musk to supply the city with ventilators. When a New York Times reporter wrote of his own gut-wrenching story about contracting COVID-19 and being unable to get help, a top mayoral aide chastised him online for seeking help at all rather than just getting better at home. And the mayor himself told a radio host that people who don’t display symptoms can’t transmit the disease, an assertion that contradicts information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

> “If you love your neighborhood bar, go there now,” de Blasio advised New Yorkers before his meeting — advice that seemed focused on imminent closings as the main problem, not the health threat from keeping them open.

Extra visits to bars right before they closed helped spread coronavirus.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 14:40:13 +0000
curi Discussion Trees With Example]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 13:32:22 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Mythbusters vid (6min) on germ contamination/spread. Practical demonstration where they show the (simulated) germs with UV light at the end.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 11:19:04 +0000
Andy Dufresne The CCP Coronavirus
I get that 2017 culture would have made mask-wearing difficult for her. And I'd guess she also got lucky not wearing a mask when she did go out.

But we need to change the culture now to where masks are acceptable instead of weird. I'm afraid people will read this article, not actually do what it says very well, and then also conclude masks aren't necessary so don't wear them cuz it looks weird.

For example, 6-foot rule I am hearing from people who do go out that most people have no idea how far 6 feet is and/or no desire to follow it. Most store aisles it is impossible to pass someone without violating the 6-foot rule. People aren't going around through a different aisle rather than pass you, or even squeezing to the opposite side as much as they can. If you stay 6 feet away from the person ahead of you in line people try to cut, thinking you're not in line. People bunch up in front of doors before stores open. Etc. Given that reality it seems to me that mask-wearing is necessary if you're going to the store for essentials or an essential IRL job. Cuz other people simply will not stay 6 feet away.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 09:19:17 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
>> I had no immune system for months after my bone marrow transplant. Here’s how I avoided viral illness, and how you can, too. It’s easier than you think.

> Wash your hands more! Great article. Seriously read it.

from the article:

> After my transplant, I washed my hands constantly, and I washed them thoroughly. I washed the palms, the backs, my wrists, each finger individually (concentrating on the finger tips), and then I scrubbed my fingernails in my palms. The whole “wash your hands for 20 seconds” thing made me laugh when I first heard it. If you truly wash your hands thoroughly, with the goal of removing any trace of pathogen you may have touched, it always takes at least 20 seconds, if not more.

> I washed my hands like this after every time I used the bathroom, before I ate, after touching anything in a public place, immediately after returning home from being out anywhere, after working out, after driving my car, after working on my computer, after feeding my pets, after cleaning my house.

> If I wanted to scratch my nose, or I needed to put in my contact lenses, I washed my hands first, before ever touching my face.

> If my hands didn’t physically feel freshly washed, I washed them.
> If I couldn’t remember the last time I washed them, I washed them.
> I only used hand sanitizer when I didn’t have access to hot water and soap.
> If this sounds extreme, consider how much simpler and easier this is than being sick.

the "extremeness" here reminds me of the rigor with which I approached my calorie counting, which people often think is extreme (result: lost tons of weight). It's not that it is extreme: it's just what it takes to do the thing effectively. good article.

I was also thinking recently about how people focus a lot on ideas like herd immunity but less on what you might call herd sanitariness. What I mean by herd sanitariness is: if tons of people start washing rigorously, wearing masks and using gloves whenever practical, then that makes it much harder for virus to spread, even if there are a few careless sick people still out there. Cuz the careless sick people will be encountering a constant wall of mask-wearing, glove-wearing, hand-washing, disinfectant-wipe-using, socially-distanced people. And that's a benefit we can get without the herd immunity downsides of a bunch of people getting sick and some dying.]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 09:17:42 +0000
Anonymous Politics Discussion
>> Tucker: What will higher education look like after coronavirus?

> People may realize unis are a rip off and online education is way more cheap/efficient.

Thought this article was interesting. Basically art students think remote learning can't work for their art stuff and want a partial refund, and the university said nah and communicated in a very poor manner. Sharing most of article below:

> Over the past week or so, the student body of Tisch (particularly the Drama students) has engaged in a back and forth with the administration regarding tuition and Zoom classes. Aggrieved students argue that remote classes cannot possibly serve as an adequate replacement for classes that necessitate a physical presence in the room (like acting classes, or dance classes, or film projects, or etcetera), and there have been various calls for a partial refund of tuition, including a petition that at publication had approximately 1,700 signatures, and calls to strike by sitting out of virtual classes.

> In turn, Tisch administration has responded with a number of emails stating categorically that no tuition will be refunded, and explanations of varying degrees of empathy and detail as to why that is. In the most recent email, in addition to doubling down on the message “we are not refunding your tuition,” Dean Allyson Green included a Vimeo link to a two minute and 16 second video in which the self-described choreographer and visual artist awkwardly dances and lip-syncs to R.E.M.’s “Losing My Religion.”

> We here at NYU Local would just like to say: what the fuck is this.

> I mean,

> Allyson.

> What the fuck.

> We get it. You’re stressed. It’s a stressful time. People are mad, a lot of them at you. But what the fuck are you doing???

> We get that the financials of a private university are complicated. We get that you can’t just wave a wand and give people their tuition. It might even be the case that those students are in the wrong. Let’s talk about it! But even if they are, how could you possibly think this would do anything but piss everyone off. Like, did you think about this for even a second?

> The video is not cute. It’s uncomfortable to watch, it goes on for too long, you end it by staring at the camera for a good eight seconds, none of it is working in the way you think it’s working. Maybe you’re a dancer, and the way you work through stress is by dancing, but the number of steps between that and filming and uploading this video to the internet is SIMPLY TOO MANY. WHAT WERE YOU THINKING?!]]>
Fri, 27 Mar 2020 04:12:51 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> I had no immune system for months after my bone marrow transplant. Here’s how I avoided viral illness, and how you can, too. It’s easier than you think.

Wash your hands more! Great article. Seriously read it.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:09:29 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> Physical and Mental Health tips for COVID 19 | Nell Watson, COVID 19 Task Force

Vid has lots of detail, e.g. copper tape and short fingernails. Information dense.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 17:46:06 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 17:31:39 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

[video from tweet](

[response tweet with 3 images](



Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:25:20 +0000
Discussion Tree Resources curi Discussion Trees With Example

And especially]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:10:20 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> NY Coronavirus Peak Worse And Coming Sooner Than Expected: Cuomo

> "We haven't flattened the curve. The curve is actually increasing," he said. "In many ways we have exhausted every option available to us."

> A 21-year-old woman with no underlying conditions has died after contracting coronavirus, according to her family.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:02:57 +0000
Anne B Anne Discussion
I think it’s doable. The only things I’ve committed to doing at a particular frequency are 1 and 3 once a day, and those don’t take very long each day.

I could be overreaching and making too many errors on the Simply Scheme stuff or something else. I wouldn’t necessarily know it if I was.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:29:50 +0000
Anne B Anne Discussion
> [10:37 AM] Kate: […] I wonder if there are things you can do to encourage vs discourage second-handedness.
> [10:38 AM] curi: there are many. recently i've been giving less advice and responding to ppl less.

I think this has helped me. I’ve been less focused on what I think curi and other people want me to do and I’ve been using my own judgment more. However, I do want more than zero suggestions and criticism, both so I can learn from their content and so I can get practice in responding to them.

Maybe it would help if it wasn’t just curi giving me advice and criticism, but other people too? I don’t know.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:28:44 +0000
Plan Update Anne B Anne Discussion
> Continue to try to keep the following in mind, reminding myself at least a few times a week:
> - have a low error rate
> - do postmortems
> - remember that it’s my responsibility and right to decide what I do, based on reasons and not emotions
> - don’t feel frustrated by problems; enjoy learning
> - focus on the real world rather than the social world
> - notice when I’m emotional or uncomfortable

I got tired of checking this stuff consciously so I stopped. I want to go back to doing it once a day.

2. In Simply Scheme, I worked through all of Chapter 2 and started working on Chapter 3.

3. Some of the other projects I was thinking of were making my own website and sharing my daily karate practice. I got both of those started.

> Also in my current plan: Write down a summary of what FI work I do every day.
I did this just about every day. I’ll continue.

**New plan for going forward**

1. Check and think about the below list once a day:
- have a low error rate
- do postmortems
- remember that it’s my responsibility and right to decide what I do, based on reasons and not emotions
- don’t feel frustrated by problems; enjoy learning
- focus on the real world rather than the social world
- notice when I’m emotional or uncomfortable

2. Continue with Simply Scheme as I have been.

3. Continue my karate practice as I have been.

4. I've been taking notes on more things that I read and listen to. I want to continue doing this. I might or might not share some of it.

5. I want to again focus on how I receive suggestions, and also explicitly include criticism as well as suggestions. So in addition to the once a day thing in 1. above, every time I get a suggestion or criticism, I want to:
- stop and think before responding
- write down (for myself) reasons for agreeing or disagreeing with it
- remember that it's my responsibility to judge whether or not to follow it.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 11:19:45 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Virus cases feared "rampant" in Japan, emergency task force launched

patio11 gave 2 previous twitter hints that CCP virus is bad in Japan. Now he's tweeted this article.]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 10:42:48 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 06:52:18 +0000
oh my god it's turpentine The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Thu, 26 Mar 2020 06:01:44 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> NYC politicians and health officials urged New Yorkers to go to movies and participate in parades, characterizing concerns about coranvirus as “misinformation”

has 4 screenshots of examples, then other info e.g.:

> In reply to petition signed by 108,000 demanding closure of schools NYC schools chancellor Richard Carranza said schools would remain open until “108,000 epidemiologists” did the same.


> DeBlasio reversed course on his policy of keeping schools and businesses open and encouraging New Yorkers to go about their lives only after some top health officials threatened to resign]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 21:48:22 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 21:46:10 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 21:00:19 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Doctor recalls witnessing patient killed inside ICU; G7 discuss combating CCP virus | China in Focus

One of the news stories: China lies they donated 150k tests to Czech Republic. Czech Republic says they paid for them and the tests are faulty with an 80% error rate.

Another story: man in China reports watching doctor murder an old man because he didn't have money and no one wanted to pay for his medical bills so they just wanted to get rid of him. Man says this is common. When the man noticed the murder in progress and asked questions, he was coerced to participate in it with his own hands. Apparently in China, if patients don't pay, doctors and nurses get forced to pay for them.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 20:56:01 +0000
New York Hospital Vid curi The CCP Coronavirus
Watch this NYT video. It's from a medical worker at an NY hospital. *It's bad.*]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 20:42:58 +0000
Disinfecting Groceries and Mail and Packages Andy Dufresne What To Do About Coronavirus
That's basically what I was doing with groceries for the last couple of weeks. I hadn't been removing bread from its bag though - that was a good suggestion.

I have a designated intake area I use to process stuff coming in from outside.

For mail, papers, any small packages that can tolerate some heat: We have a large metal box that can still fit in our oven. It's just something that was holding a bunch of bolts in the garage - nothing special but I don't actually remember where I got it. Anyway, I leave the lid off the box, and when stuff comes in that I'll want to handle with heat it goes in the box. Once a day I preheat the oven to 160 F, put the lid on the box, put the box in the oven, set a timer for 30 minutes, come back later when its cool, then I can use everything in the box.

For large packages or stuff that might be heat sensitive it's harder and I don't have a single approach. Right now I'm letting them sit for a day or 2, spraying and/or wiping the outer box with bleach rag, then opening. Depending on what's inside I may put it in the sun for an hour (UV), wipe it with bleach rag, wash it with soap and water, or let it have additional sitting time. I don't have clear standards for what to do in advance.

After touching anything from outside before it has been processed, I wash hands. I try to do things like pick up stuff with 1 hand and use other to close and lock doors. If I can't, I wipe down the door handles I touched with bleach rag after washing hands.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:41:17 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Coronavirus - 21 Million Cellphones Disappeared in China

Video has various bits of info about china.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 16:49:05 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
> The news media have begun to impose blackouts on President Donald Trump’s coronavirus briefings to the American public. On Monday evening, multiple news outlets cut away from the president’s briefing before he finished.

> Far-left outlets like the Washington Post, NBC News, the Atlantic, CNN, the Boston Globe, etc., want to put an end to broadcasting Trump’s briefings; the idea being to block Americans from hearing directly from their president so these massive media corporations can censor whatever the president says that they do not approve of.

> Just writing the above sounds preposterous, like something outlandish, like something out of a dystopian novel where mega-corporations rule over everything.

> For those of you who doubt this, here is the Washington Post:

> > Radical change is necessary. The cable networks and other news organizations that are taking the president’s briefings as live feeds should stop doing so.

> > Should they cover the news that’s produced in them? Of course. Thoroughly and relentlessly — with context and fact-checking built in to every step and every stage.

> Here is far-left CNN staffer Jake Tapper:

> > If the president is not capable of leading stably and effectually, he should, at least, for his own reputation, for the good of the country, stop making things worse and consider leaving the podium to others.

> And now the blackouts have begun.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 16:16:29 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Film Crew Documents Life in Wuhan Amid COVID-19 Epidemic

Lots of shots of mostly empty public places + sad music.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:36:03 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> While the world is dealing with the Corona Pandemic... some see it as an opportunity to attack Israel with lies and anti-Semitic slurs.

2min video. Canary Mission is a good group to follow.

story about a wife taking care of her husband who has CCP virus. focuses on emotion and storytelling.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:33:32 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> The Censored (by Google) Hydroxychloroquinine paper

Haven't read it, don't know if it's good, but don't think it should be censored/deplatformed. It's about a CCP virus medicine.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 12:16:02 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud


> During the 1970s and early 1980s, the majority of NPR funding came from the federal government.

Apparently it doesn't receive much government funding today, but the legacy of government funding still made a big impact on how it's perceived and helped it get big.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:46:40 +0000
The Government Is Killing Us curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Meanwhile, we’re being required to denature the alcohol to make it not that it doesn’t get TAXED AS AN ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE, just in case you wanted to drink a 160-proof ethanol/glycerin/hydrogen peroxide cocktail. But denaturing agents are nearly impossible to find.

Twitter thread says how the government is limiting hand sanitizer production.

> Wondered why it's been so hard to ramp up production of surgical masks and respirators? Why haven't private companies flooded into the market to meet peak demand?

> Because they are regulated medical devices & new versions require FDA approval which can take months to obtain. 1/

The thread says some of the regulatory hurdles:

> - do a compositional side-by-side analysis of your mask vs all other masks currently sold. Hire a few materials scientists, okay.

> - measure "tensile strength" & "impact resistance." Hire the Mythbusters and have them whack it with a hammer.

> - perform detailed "risk analysis," for fluid/bacteria resistance and "flammability." Hmmm, better open a branch office for all those extra materials scientists and medical researchers. This is multiple major studies (though a Boring Company flamethrower might work in a pinch.)

> - but wait, don't forget that masks touch skin! What if it gives you a rash!!! Okay, fine, we'll fill out the "standard ISO-10993," yeah, you know, the one for “Biological Evaluation of Medical Devices Part 1: Evaluation and Testing." Sprinkle in a couple more clinicians.

More at]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:34:36 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Tucker: America won't be the same after the pandemic

Good 7min vid]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:17:23 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> India sets 21-day 'complete lockdown' to stop coronavirus spread

Sounds like the hammer. Good news.

> Washington governor issues two-week stay-at-home order

Also sounds like the hammer.

> New York mayor calls for nationwide US lockdown

Yes please.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 11:12:49 +0000
Freeze Weinstein vs. Veritas
One good thing is that Weinstein has an audience that generally dislikes O'Keefe, so him giving O'Keefe a platform could improve the reach of Veritas and change some people's notions of O'Keefe.

I like O'Keefe's approach to journalism which is essentially facts first, moralizing later (or never). He doesn't push opinions and just releases raw footage and conversations. Weinstein's argument that O'Keefe was following the letter of the law but making people uncomfortable by breaking the spirit of it seemed flawed to me. O'Keefe made good points that it's a rights infringement to prevent someone from writing down what someone else said to them, and it's the exact same thing with a recording. He also explained that he never releases stuff that is needlessly harmful to people and only releases topical footage that the public deserves to see.

I'm curious about what Veritas' team's process is like in terms of vetting footage. O'Keefe mentioned that it costs $1M to air a single story, which was fascinating to hear.]]>
Wed, 25 Mar 2020 01:46:58 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:18:55 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:17:11 +0000 March 6 vs March 24 curi The CCP Coronavirus

March 24:

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:05:59 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus


George Reisman didn't reply when I told him I disagreed with him about coronavirus.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:03:36 +0000
2 Strains? curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Look at the phylogenetic tree with 164 genomes (and counting) and explain to me where it makes sense to split it into exactly two pieces. It doesn't matter how they decided to make this distinction, in the end that's what they're basically doing. Am I misunderstanding something here?

Question seems reasonable. The answer he got on reddit is "it appears to just be a terrible paper that should never have been published." With info:

> Why I think the Tang et al. paper should be retracted and the media should avoid spreading the idea of "two types of Covid-19"

More details at:

Conclusion is basically that the two strains idea is dangerous fake news.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:53:53 +0000
curi Politics Discussion
> Tucker: What will higher education look like after coronavirus?

People may realize unis are a rip off and online education is way more cheap/efficient.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:46:43 +0000
Masks curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Sometimes you’ll see “PM” followed by a number, like PM2.5. That refers to particles of diameter 2.5 microns, or micrometers, or less. Microns are small – 1 millionth of a meter. Pollen particles are often 10 microns or bigger. Bacteria are often about 1 micron.

> In fact, smaller particles, like 0.01-micron particles are even easier to capture than those 0.3-micron particles!

Really small stuff does not follow your intuitions. Check out the article for an explanation.

> What Are The Best Materials for Making DIY Masks?

> Can DIY Masks Protect Us from Coronavirus?]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:33:49 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> [China] marshaled 10% *of the entire healthcare staff of the entire country of 1.4 billion people* to Wuhan (doctors, nurses, everyone)

Article is interesting in various other ways, but also has flaws. I think he overestimates the virus fizzling out in the summer and he doesn't distinguish between how many people are *actually* infected and the posted stats about how many have shown up as infected in a test (which can be limited by testing more than virus spread). Also CCP virus is significantly more infectious than flu according to the stats I've seen. Also his technical info on masks isn't very good.

**Better info on masks**:

I've read before about the two strains, S and L, but I don't know much detail. e.g.

Here's a reddit thread on strains that I haven't read yet (note the first comment says the paper is terrible):

article has info on current quarantine measures in Wuhan.

> In Italy, during the early days of the outbreak, Italians in a town hall meeting mocked an official who was wearing a mask. He threw the mask off in anger, and declared that he had visited three coronavirus hotspots and was wearing the mask for *their* protection, not his. But that if they wanted his mask off, then he'd take it off, and Godspeed to them.

The info about almost everyone dying being age 60+ with other health conditions is misleading. The rate of younger people being hospitalized is a lot higher than that. They die slower. We won't know how dangerous it is to healthy younger people until a lot more of them have recovered and gotten out of the hospital. Quoting from earlier on this webpage:

> In New York state, where there are now more confirmed coronavirus cases than in France or South Korea, nearly 54% of hospitalized coronavirus patients are between 18 and 49, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Saturday.

Chase Amante also linked this video which had some interesting clips from Wuhan:

(As always, bear in mind the info coming out of Wuhan is biased and selectively censored by the CCP.)]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:31:17 +0000
Alisa The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:16:29 +0000 Chase Amante: Can You Still Meet People During Coronavirus? Alisa The CCP Coronavirus
- Marshaling 10% of the entire country's healthcare workers to one city: Wuhan.
- No one can enter an apartment complex who doesn't live there.
- Mandatory temperature checks upon entering or exiting any apartment complex.
- Mandatory mask wearing outside. Deliberately getting your unmasked face close to another in public is an arrest-able offense.
- Everyone who works outside the home must work in rotating shifts: one day on, two days off.
- Universal (?) curfews from 10 PM to 6 PM.

It then briefly compares what China did to what France, Italy, and U.K. did/are doing.

So far, the article seems roughly believable, though the CCP was probably even more brutal than it describes, and it omits any discussion of the CCP's lies and suppression of whistle-blowers.

I'm less convinced about the stuff it goes on to say (described below).

It says only people over 60 need to worry about SARS-CoV-2:

> [I]f you are under 60 and don't have [health] problems... it is... not a threat to you... pretty much at all.

As far as masks are concerned, it says only N95 masks offer any protection to the wearer.

> There are some reports saying it causes lasting damage to the lungs, liver, kidneys, and testes.

It goes on to argue that healthy people under 60 don't need to worry about long-lasting liver, kidney, and testes damage, but it doesn't say anything more about the lasting lung damage.

The rest of the article is about meeting people.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:15:33 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Good news channel. I subscribed recently.

This episode reports about people in Wuhan jumping off buildings to kill themselves. Says many people in Wuhan have relapsed and tested positive again after getting back from hospitals.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:07:52 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 24 Mar 2020 19:55:35 +0000 Ann Coulter Sucks curi The CCP Coronavirus


I replied:

> wtf? read your own charts. Plus this comparison ignores problems like the hospitals getting full (raises mortality rate dramatically), non-fatal permanent harm, and that the coronavirus data is not accurate yet (actually even the flu data is bad afaik).

Here's one of the better replies that isn't just flaming her without explanation:


[1] Ratioed means high replies to RTs or likes. It indicates ppl hate the tweet because replies are where you say negative things b/c there is no downvote button. For tweets ppl like, a lot more ppl will like it than reply, but for tweets they hate you get a ton of replies.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 19:29:09 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul's father, former Texas Congressman Ron Paul, penned an article titled "The Coronavirus Hoax," just six days before his son became the first U.S. senator to test positive for COVID-19

Despite my free market views, I never liked Ron Paul (I'm pretty skeptical of Rand Paul too but he doesn't seem as bad but I haven't researched it). Here's me in 2015 to FI list:

> This should be a satire, but it’s a real libertarian – Ron Paul – who is much worse than the shitlib interviewing him.

> Wait until after the nukes land on Tel Aviv and New York City before doing anything, or else we’re the bad guys! sigh

Ron Paul said that all preemptive attacks are initiation of force. The interviewer was also unimpressed btw, e.g.:

> MORGAN: You're not seriously defending Ahmadinejad, are you?

Ron Paul is also an anti-semite. There are some other FI and [RP](!forum/rational-politics-list) threads criticizing Ron Paul.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 18:58:14 +0000
Massive Fatality Undercounting? curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?

> The country's high death toll is due to an ageing population, overstretched health system and the way fatalities are reported

> “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

> “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

> This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death

The article spins this as Italy overcounting deaths by a factor of 8.33 but I read as mostly meaning that some other countries are majorly undercounting.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 18:49:05 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

I commented on one at]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 17:25:45 +0000
curi Social Reality and Real Reality
Tucker explains this in terms of caring more about being woke and virtue signaling than people's lives.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 17:17:26 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

I talked about it on stream]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 12:13:49 +0000
curi Rationally Resolving Conflicts of Ideas Tue, 24 Mar 2020 00:26:50 +0000 curi Politics Discussion
Protect people. Defend people's lives and rights.

That means things like closing borders and, yes, locking lots of stuff down. Going about life as usual will kill many millions worldwide. People trying to do that are killing others and must be stopped.]]>
Tue, 24 Mar 2020 00:23:03 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Italy: Crematorium running out of space may be forced to stop accepting coffins

Video is in Italian but more English info in video description. Shows a bunch of coffins. The crematorium can't burn the bodies fast enough so they're piling up.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 21:21:34 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus

i looked up actual paper

> SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted (Takuya Yamagishi, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, personal communication, 2020).

that doesn't really give any details, so I wonder if they just stopped testing after 17 days and it could last even longer...]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 17:07:46 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Mathematical model of Coronavirus spread in USA.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 16:53:06 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
One time donation on paypal:

Or monthly subscribtion: (it's like patreon with reward tiers)]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:46:15 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> The virus is of zoonotic origin. March 17th update: The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2: "Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus." (Source study). A genome analysis published March 20th suggests two viruses may have combined (source).

Zoonotic origin = comes from animals.

that study is total bullshit FYI

i think it's likely SARS-CoV-2 comes from animals, due to circumstantial evidence, but that study can't disprove lab, offers no real insight, and should be assumed to be Chinese propaganda.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:09:22 +0000
Reddit Virus Info Megapost curi The CCP Coronavirus
I wrote a reply:

>> [AWAITING PEER REVIEW] A new study indicates COVID-19 can survive in the air for up to 3 hours, and several days on surfaces, depending on the surface (up to 3 days on plastic, up to 2 days on metal, up to 1 day on cardboard). (Article | Study). Here's a shadowgraph imaging of people breathing (source). Unfortunately it is a bit misleading as it does not show drop dispersion, but gets the point across.

> This is confusing at most vs. at least. E.g. they tested after 3 hours and the virus was still in the air. Then they stopped the experiment. So it's not living "up to" 3 hours, it's "at least" 3 hours.

> Tons of news articles, as well as the abstracts of some of the studies, have been spreading misinformation about this. Basically all the claims floating around about how long the virus lasts are "at least" not "up to"/"at most".

> Also we're dealing with half-lives here so giving a specific amount of time is a rough approximation about when it's safe to touch. But I haven't read anything actually saying what amount of virus is safe to touch. Instead, people seem to basically assume, for convenience, that the smallest amount of virus we can detect/measure is dangerous but anything less than that is safe.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 13:04:22 +0000
Alisa Open Discussion: Economics
curi said:

> ... giving up or failing should be a moderately big deal. A notable event, not a dime a dozen. It'd be a thing that goes on a list of projects and their outcomes and is considered important data about your life, capabilities, etc.

Justin Mallone replied (emphasis mine):

> If "pick anything to focus on" means "commit to discussing an intellectual/philosophy topic for an indefinite period of time, possibly years, including all relevant/related topics, until stuff gets throughly resolved, lest the failure to do so be considered a kind of failure/**breach of trust/fraudulent misrepresentation of interest** in the topic" then no.

curi said nothing about fraud or breach of trust. Justin added that.

It looks to me like curi had in mind basically that **Justin himself** would consider it a big deal if Justin stopped discussing before a conclusion was reached.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:55:36 +0000
_khaaan The CCP Coronavirus
> I think RTing this thread was an error by @_khaaan


>> Please don't stay indoors because of all the unscientific scolding going around. Sunshine and fresh air are good for you. Just don't get close to other people, avoid the crowds and crowded places. (Wear sunscreen, I guess, if it's really sunny).

> It's typical half-measures contrary to hammer and dance.

I see what you mean. I undid the RT.]]>
Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:48:48 +0000
Anonymous Coronavirus Solution Mon, 23 Mar 2020 00:17:46 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
> !!!! In New York state, where there are now more confirmed coronavirus cases than in France or South Korea, nearly 54% of hospitalized coronavirus patients are between 18 and 49, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said on Saturday.

Links to

> Younger patients are being hospitalized more in the U.S. and Europe than in China, and that has contributed to massive supply shortages]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 21:07:40 +0000
curi Open Discussion: Economics
Your pessimism, negativity, etc., are totally unnecessary and avoidable. They are due to your own misconceptions that you are shielding from critical discussion. It doesn't have to be this way.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 19:46:39 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
From Feb 4-9, Canada sent 16 tons of PPE to China. PPE is:

> personal protective equipment, such as clothing, face shields, masks, goggles and gloves

Canadians will die from this altruism.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 19:39:19 +0000
Coronavirus Errors curi The CCP Coronavirus

It's typical half-measures contrary to hammer and dance.


And I think this tweet from George Reisman was an error:

It's positive about this article which people may want to criticize:

It says e.g.

> We are told that we must emulate Italy or China, but there is no evidence that the flailing, despotic measures taken in these countries reduced the incidence of coronavirus. The most basic error in science is to assume that because B happens after A, that B was caused by A.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 19:34:31 +0000
Anonymous Coronavirus Solution Sun, 22 Mar 2020 18:27:17 +0000 Alisa What To Do About Coronavirus Sun, 22 Mar 2020 17:43:49 +0000 Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 16:35:12 +0000
Dagny Coronavirus Solution
It is *not* the hammer. It's not close. It's half-measures (maybe tenth-measures) which are likely to kill over a million Americans compared to the hammer and dance strategy.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 15:39:59 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Testimony of a surgeon working in Bergamo, in the heart of Italy's coronavirus outbreak]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:41:42 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 11:31:51 +0000
curi Coronavirus Solution
Don't be an emotionalist.

Learn philosophy. Learn anything.

Learn about viruses. Demystify the enemy.

Distract yourself. Books, video games, TV. Find something you can get lost in for weeks, like a new one that sucks you in.

Do stuff you regard as productive, have wanted to do for a long time, and can do at home.

Understand what the dangers are better. You should be scared if you and others are going out like normal. But if you're staying home, your risk is low. The fear should prevent risky activities and get you to do low risk activities, and you should feel fairly safe while you're avoiding the risky activities. Associate the fear with the dangerous stuff not with all of life.]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:24:33 +0000
Andy Dufresne Coronavirus Solution
Suppose someone will listen to enough information to become fearful and self-isolate for now.

Then the fear itself becomes a problem - leading to not just feeling bad but not being able to sleep, loss of appetite, raise in blood pressure, listlessness, hyperventilating, stress-eating, etc. Less fear than that and they would still go out and do dumb shit.

Don't get me wrong: the fear is a better problem to deal with than having the virus. But still a big problem, and one that could cause nasty snap-backs ("fuck it, I'm tired of living this way, if I die I die", "I want to drink to forget all this").

Any suggestions for dealing with that?]]>
Sun, 22 Mar 2020 03:32:17 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 22:20:43 +0000
Awful Coronavirus Claims curi The CCP Coronavirus
> West Virginians who have no contact with anyone visiting from China can rest easy!

> It’s no worse than the 2017-18 flu season for those in their 60s.

> We ought to surround old folks homes with the National Guard and call it a day. It would probably save more lives and wouldn’t destroy the economy.

Never forget.

[Alex Jones]( (the InfoWars guys)

> Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones is hawking a silver-infused toothpaste he falsely claims has the power to kill the new coronavirus.

[Alex Jones 2](

> A spokesperson for Jones sent HuffPost a letter on Thursday that was attributed to Jones’ lawyer and stated that “InfoWars” stands by the product.

Never forgive.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 21:01:23 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud
Twitter has a new policy of censoring information that contradicts what the authorities say. So if some retarded CDC spokesman says we don't need to wear masks, you could get suspended or something for saying masks help.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 18:05:34 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Sat, 21 Mar 2020 17:42:36 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
Selling video games (which are entertainment and can be digitally downloaded anyway) is not an essential business, you absolute scumbags.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 17:41:33 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Gamestop is Endangering Employees and Customers

Includes leaked conference call audio from gamestop execs.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 17:37:34 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus

> I'm Turkish and we have them beat. We were doing fine, but then 25 thousand people returned from Umre, which is NON-MANDATORY pilgrimage to Mecca, and the government tried to quarantine them but I guess they could only stop 15 thousand of them at the airport and then those motherfuckers tried to escape from police enforced quarantine to travel around and meet their extended families because they apparently do that after coming back from Umre. So those guys took our confirmed case number from 3 to 947 in a week, the actual number is probably much more.

> Young and informed people are doing great with the quarantine thing. Everyone I know has only gone out to get supplies from the supermarket. But when I go to the market all I see are 70 and 80 year olds everywhere. On public transport, it's just old people. A municipality in Istanbul had to remove benches from public areas because old people would just come and sit there all day. Some cities revoked their free public transport cards temporarily because there are elderly people who don't have anything to do so they ride the bus round and round all day. Finally the government issued a ban to go outside for people over 65, but I went out again headed for the market and saw 3 elderly people after that was issued. So yeah, our elderly population is trying, despite our best efforts, to get sick and die.

> This turned out way longer than I thought it would, sorry.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 17:29:05 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> Coronavirus: What if we did NOTHING?]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 17:26:53 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> 25,000 people now skiing in Sweden, organizers putting together after-ski parties for 499 people, getting around national ban on gatherings of 500+. Locals putting signs up at train station saying, “Think of those of us who live here, you egomaniacs.” (in Swedish)]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 17:26:31 +0000
Justin Mallone Open Discussion: Economics
If "pick anything to focus on" means "commit to discussing an intellectual/philosophy topic for an indefinite period of time, possibly years, including all relevant/related topics, until stuff gets throughly resolved, lest the failure to do so be considered a kind of failure/breach of trust/fraudulent misrepresentation of interest in the topic" then no.

> The issue isn't the time period (number of weeks) but what happens during that time. What, if anything, gets done and resolved. Topic changes should be for reasons, not because of emotions or the passage of time.

I don't have a criticism of your position regarding how conversations should ideally go in terms of topic changes etc. What I was trying to get across earlier is what I think I can actually reasonably commit to in good faith right now, given what I know about myself.

> If you can't focus on a topic due to your interests (what you find "fun" and "interesting") being emotional whims (I think that's really common), that's a major problem and something needs to be done about it.

I think that's true but don't think I'll make major progress on this issue anytime soon.

For now my current approach will be to not really engage intellectually with FI stuff much at all (that's not a new situation, just stating it for the record). I have some limited interest in discussion of some particular FI-adjacent topics some amount, but not enough to meet the discussion standards here, and I don't want to misrepresent my interest level in discussion to other people.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 14:27:46 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> There have been three major regulatory barriers so far.

I suggest someone post some article excerpts.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 13:14:38 +0000
curi Open Discussion: Economics
Indefinite also doesn't mean you can't give up or fail so you'd be stuck working on it forever.

But giving up or failing should be a moderately big deal. A notable event, not a dime a dozen. It'd be a thing that goes on a list of projects and their outcomes and is considered important data about your life, capabilities, etc.

Tons of topics get dropped with no clear failure, no clear giving up, no clear outcome, and no data collection in order to identify patterns of failure and address them. This is an ongoing problem with ~everyone, year after year. I'm trying to deal with it better now.]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 13:11:01 +0000
curi Slow the coronavirus spread so we can test way more]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 13:01:14 +0000
curi Open Discussion: Economics
The issue isn't the time period (number of weeks) but what happens during that time. What, if anything, gets done and resolved. Topic changes should be for reasons, not because of emotions or the passage of time.

If you can't focus on a topic due to your interests (what you find "fun" and "interesting") being emotional whims (I think that's really common), that's a major problem and something needs to be done about it. One of the best things most people can do about it is a workaround: work on smaller, easier, simpler topics. Start with projects you can finish in 15 minutes. Succeed at some. Then scale up: half hour projects, hour projects, two hours, etc. (You may notice how this connects to the issue of overreaching.)]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 12:49:57 +0000
Justin Mallone Open Discussion: Economics Sat, 21 Mar 2020 07:50:59 +0000 A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients jordancurve The CCP Coronavirus
This is the best article I’ve read on “why you don’t want to get coronavirus”. A few excerpts (emphasis mine):

> It’s called acute respiratory distress syndrome, ARDS. That means the lungs are filled with fluid. And it’s notable for the way the X-ray looks: **The entire lung is basically whited out from fluid**. Patients with ARDS are extremely difficult to oxygenate. **It has a really high mortality rate, about 40%.** The way to manage it is to put a patient on a ventilator.

> “In my experience, this severity of ARDS is usually more typical of someone who has a **near drowning experience** — they have a bunch of dirty water in their lungs — or people who **inhale caustic gas**. Especially for it to have such an acute onset like that. **I’ve never seen a microorganism or an infectious process cause such acute damage to the lungs so rapidly.** That was what really shocked me.”

> “It first struck me how different it was when I saw my first coronavirus patient go bad. I was like, Holy shit, this is not the flu. **Watching this relatively young guy, gasping for air, pink frothy secretions coming out of his tube and out of his mouth.** The ventilator should have been doing the work of breathing but he was still **gasping for air, moving his mouth, moving his body, struggling. We had to restrain him. With all the coronavirus patients, we’ve had to restrain them. They really hyperventilate, really struggle to breathe.** When you’re in that mindstate of struggling to breathe and delirious with fever, you don’t know when someone is trying to help you, so **you’ll try to rip the breathing tube out because you feel it is choking you, but you are drowning.**

> “When someone has an infection, I’m used to seeing the normal colors you’d associate with it: greens and yellows. The coronavirus patients with ARDS have been having a lot of secretions that are actually pink because they’re filled with blood cells that are leaking into their airways. **They are essentially drowning in their own blood and fluids because their lungs are so full. So we’re constantly having to suction out the secretions every time we go into their rooms.**”

> Your risk of mortality increases every day that you spend on a ventilator. The high pressures from high vent settings is pushing air into the lung and can overinflate those little balloons. They can pop. It can destroy the alveoli. **Even if you survive ARDS, although some damage can heal, it can also do long-lasting damage to the lungs.** They can get filled up with scar tissue. ARDS can lead to **cognitive decline**...]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 07:00:07 +0000
Justin Mallone Open Discussion: Economics
Hard no to "indefinitely."

I think I could reasonably commit to something like a moderate amount of discussion over the course of a couple of weeks. It may be longer depending on the length of time for which other stuff I want to do is disrupted due to the corona stuff. So the availability (or lack thereof) of other activities that I'd prefer to focus on right now is one major constraint.

Another major constraint is my own unpredictable interest level. I have some general interest in economics that I've pursued to some degree for many years, so in some respects I'm in better shape on that front for this discussion than I would be on many other topics. Despite that, I still don't want to commit to an indefinite time period discussion.

I understand if this is not a really tempting discussion offer to you -- no hard feelings if so!]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 06:16:07 +0000
Anonymous Open Discussion: Economics

Overall, I agree with the analysis presented in the article. I did have one quibble:

> For the hospitals are in a position to outbid virtually all other competitors for such things.

> For one thing, they could immediately obtain the supplies held by speculators, who, under present conditions, are prohibited from selling them, a situation that is insane.

> What is preventing these sales is an apparent preference for the suffering of hospital patients over the profit of the speculators, who have assembled the supplies the hospitals and their patients need.

I would guess that hospitals face various issues that would prevent them from obtaining supplies held by speculators such as the guy discussed in the NYT article (such as hospital policies, regulations, or liability concerns).]]>
Sat, 21 Mar 2020 06:09:39 +0000
curi Open Discussion: Economics Sat, 21 Mar 2020 00:30:52 +0000 Coronavirus Fake News curi The CCP Coronavirus
There’s a myth that coronavirus can live on hard surfaces, like plastic, ceramic or steel, for up to three days, live on cardboard for up to one day, and live in the air for up to three hours. These claims all blatantly contradict the scientific studies they’re reporting on. The [actual studies]( (more studies: [one](, [two]( say viruses were still present at those times. The times should all be labelled with “at least” instead of “at most”. E.g. the virus can live in the air for *at least* three hours; that’s a minimum, not a maximum. The reason for that three hour number is that they stopped the experiment at that point even though the air still contained lots of virus.

Figuring out when it’s safe to touch things, based on the half-life of the virus on that material and infectious quantity, is tricky and temperature-dependent. (Viruses live longer in the cold, so you should probably sanitize anything going into a fridge or freezer). I don’t have all the right answers. Most journalists know less than I do, don’t read the studies they report on (or don’t understand what they read), and spread fake news, so watch out and err on the side of caution.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 23:40:58 +0000
Coronavirus Fake News curi The CCP Coronavirus
There’s a myth that coronavirus can live on hard surfaces, like plastic, ceramic or steel, for up to three days max. The study this comes from actually said it can live on those surfaces for *at least* three days, not three days max. Many reporters apparently can’t or don’t read the information they report on.

Figuring out when it’s safe to touch things based on the half-life of the virus on that material is non-obvious, and it varies by temperature (you should probably sanitize everything that’s going into your fridge or freezer because colder temperatures let most viruses live longer). Instead of providing useful information and guidance, many journalists are doing us a dangerous disservice by irresponsibly spreading fake news.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 23:16:37 +0000
curi Politics Discussion
> Editors of book series stop publishing with Springer Nature to protest its acquiescence to Chinese government censorship demands.

> The Financial Times [first reported last year]( that Springer Nature had blocked access in China to more than 1,000 articles in two political science journals dealing with sensitive subjects in China such as Taiwan, Tibet and the Cultural Revolution.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 22:51:49 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Nick Mark’s one page guides to a range of critical care topics, including an expanded and frequently updated section on COVID-19.

Helps people learn ICU and medical treatments and topics fast, and provides info sheets people can print out and refer to.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 22:45:17 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
also, regardless of the average, and setting aside the *huge* problem of the same person getting sick multiple times ... virus mutation is risky. even if it was more likely to mutate to be less deadly (which i'm not claiming at all), it still might mutate to be more deadly. even a small chance it gets more deadly is a big risk that could kill millions. and it doesn't have to get more deadly generically. it could e.g. get better at killing young people or get better at suppressing your immune system so it lasts longer.

the more people get it, the more chance of mutation. we don't understand it enough now *and it can change*.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 22:31:18 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 22:11:36 +0000
Anonymous Open Discussion: Economics]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 21:59:31 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus Fri, 20 Mar 2020 21:45:14 +0000 Alisa The CCP Coronavirus
According to Wikipedia's "[List of current members of the United States Congress by wealth](" (retrieved 2020-03-20):

> Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Georgia), with a net worth of $500 million, is the wealthiest member of Congress.

According to the AJC article "[Loeffler among senators whose stock trading during coronavirus raises questions](" (2020-03-20):

> In the days and weeks after, financial disclosures show that either [Loeffler] or her spouse sold up to $3.1 million in stocks.

Suppose Loeffler believed the stock market was likely to crash soon and made investment-related decisions consistent with that belief. The $3.1 million of stocks she sold is about 0.6% of her $500 million net worth. 0.6% of one's net worth is tiny compared to the kind of move someone would make under those circumstances (unless that 0.6% represented a significant fraction of her stocks at the time, which is implausible). As an aside, there are more profitable (albeit more risky) alternatives to simply selling, such as [using margin to sell short](

On 2020-03-20, Loeffler [defended herself on Twitter](

> [...] I do not make investment decisions for my portfolio. Investment decisions are made by multiple third-party advisors without my or my husband's knowledge or involvement.
> As confirmed in the periodic transaction report to Senate Ethics, I was informed of these purchases and sales on February 16, 2020 — three weeks after they were made.

If that's true, then Loeffler is innocent.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 21:34:08 +0000
Justin Mallone Open Discussion: Economics

I got some criticism and was doing some more thinking about it.

I was writing some notes on my thinking and got stuck at a certain point in my analysis.

I tried to come up with an argument that the guy in the article was actually creating value.

The argument is:

In the current situation where there is very high demand for things like hand sanitizer, if the guy hadn’t engaged in his speculative activities, woudn’t that be a windfall for whoever happened to grab a bottle of hand sanitizer at a dollar store in the backwoods of Kentucky? Like say the global market price for hand sanitizer is $50 a bottle at the moment, and it costs $1 at the dollar store in Kentucky. If NYT article guy can get the $1 hand sanitizer to the $50 market, isn't he adding value?

People willing to pay $50 for hand sanitizer may be more disproportionately at risk, living as they are in urban centers where they’re more likely to come into contact with the virus than someone frequenting a dollar store in rural Kentucky.

So basically the argument is that the guy is helping move goods to where they are more urgently needed, based on price signals.

**Counterargument**: there might be other means of getting people access to the stock of goods in a rural Kentucky dollar store in an urgent situation like the coronavirus disaster *other than* having some small time speculator shipping stuff around at great cost. For example, the store might be a national one that can move inventory around, or the stores might donate the supply of hand sanitizer, or the govt might ask for it.

**Counter-counter-argument**: Would that actually happen? Should we criticize someone who actually acted on the basis of the fact that *maybe* someone else could have acted to solve the problem? The govt and others aren't doing an amazing job responding to the situation.

**Counter-counter-counter-argument**: The guy isn't doing an amazing job responding to the situation either.

Some general comments: speculators can face issues like bad storage practices, or expensive storage, or expensive/inefficient shipping, or difficulty finding/connecting with customers. The difficulty finding/connecting with customers could be due to issues like regulation, or markets balking at “price gouging”, or an inability of certain major purchasers to purchase stuff from independent parties selling goods outside of the normal supply channels.

These are all risks and concerns that the successful speculator must think about and try to plan for *before* he engages in his speculation if he’s going to have much hope of successfully engaging in speculation and adding value to the marketplace by holding goods for later use.

This guy doesn't seem to have great storage practices, has expensive shipping, wound up facing trouble selling his goods and may get in trouble with the law. He ineffectively dealt with the objective state of the situation involved in getting his goods to market.

**Counter-counter-counter-counter-argument**: But should some of the things he's having to deal with even exist? Like anti-price-gouging laws and harsh consumer sentiment against price gougers? Blaming him for having to deal with that stuff seems like blaming the victim.

**Counter-counter-counter-counter-counter-argument**: He's not some productive genius dealing with a new anti-dog-eat-dog rule being sprung on him, though. He knew or should have known the facts of the situation he was dealing with, including stuff like price gouging laws. His actions wind up temporarily taking some time-sensitive and urgently needed goods off the market at the time when they could be of the most benefit.

Anyways I think I'm making progress but still don't think/feel like the initial argument re: moving around goods to where they're more urgently needed is fully addressed.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 17:45:52 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Fri, 20 Mar 2020 16:11:17 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
> From a friend who's a surgeon at a top hospital in Northeast US:

Fri, 20 Mar 2020 15:31:49 +0000
EVERYONE READ THIS ARTICLE curi The CCP Coronavirus Fri, 20 Mar 2020 15:12:49 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Over the past decade, there has been renewed public and official concern about infectious disease as a resurgent public health threat. That concern has been coupled, though, with some surprise. After all, we modern citizens are protected by a plethora of vaccinations and antibiotics. We live in hygienic homes with sweet-smelling toilet bowls, and we eat pressure-packed sterilized foods. Surely germ-free Nirvana is near. Yet, in the past quarter century we have encountered the emergence of many new or newly identified infectious diseases, including Legionnaire’s disease, Lyme disease, HIV/AIDS, hepatitis C, Ebola virus, human ‘mad cow disease’ (variant CJD), the Nipah virus, West Nile fever, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)—as well as resurgent infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, cholera, dengue fever, and malaria.

Disease is not a solved problem. People thinking it is are naive and ignorant.

> If rodents are the natural hosts of SARS-coronaviruses, widescale extermination of their natural small carnivore predators, could exacerbate rather than remove the problem.

Context: Some civet cats at meat markets tested positive for SARS. China starting killing lots of civet cats to try to prevent SARS. But scientists were unable to find SARS in wild civet cats, so they think the civet cats were infected by something else which is the real source of SARS. The civet cats apparently get infected as part of the meat trade, after capture. A good candidate for the real source of SARS is some sort of rodent. Civet cats kill and eat rodents. Attacking civet cats therefore increases rodent populations, so it may be counter-productive.]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 13:42:39 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> Loeffler, who took office in January, attended a January 24, Senate Health Committee briefing "regarding the novel coronavirus outbreak." The Daily Beast reports that he began selling off stock later that day.

If politicians knew enough in January to sell stock, why didn't they protect the country!?]]>
Fri, 20 Mar 2020 10:56:08 +0000
Anonymous What To Do About Coronavirus
Article from Canada about the same kind of situation, warning that Covid-19 will continue rising after social distancing has been enacted:

> It takes about five days for symptoms to appear and another six or seven days for people to become sick enough to seek medical help.

So basically the "new" cases you see are people who were infected 11 or 12 days ago, before quarantine was enacted in Italy.

They also say it takes 16 days before people become critically ill. It's March 19th now, so the critically ill people in Italy would have been infected around March 3rd, about a week before quarantine.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 23:28:53 +0000
curi What To Do About Coronavirus
> Italian authorities have pressed charges against more than 40,000 people for violating the lockdown imposed to contain the coronavirus, according to figures from the interior ministry.

An indication of how much people are violating quarantine. Article from March 18.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 23:07:06 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
5min news video from italy. see what the hospitals are like. worth watching.

stop debating the mortality rate, guys. the percentage isn't the key fact. the key fact is it overwhelms hospitals well before the peak of the curve. that's really, really bad news.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 22:46:36 +0000
Anonymous What To Do About Coronavirus

I think this is still how we should expect things to be right?

Not sure how the curve would look if rats were also spreading the disease.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 22:25:24 +0000
Alisa What To Do About Coronavirus Thu, 19 Mar 2020 19:07:51 +0000 Bianobia What To Do About Coronavirus
The cases per day continues to climb in Italy despite lockdown. So why?

Lots of reasons. Family units now living 24/7 in close contact. Ppl not taking lockdown seriously.

Another possibility is there is a secondary spreader. Possibly rats as Italy has a massive rat problem exacerbated by streets full of uncollected garbage. They are in the apartment buildings. Lockdown forces ppl into closer contact with rats and rats will be entering buildings more as food sources dry up on the street.

If this is true, lockdown alone is never going to work. Rat extermination has to take place. But is it plausible?]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 18:27:35 +0000
curi Algorithmic Animal Behavior
[Cat Saves Toddler From Falling Down Stairs]( (1min video)

The second comment is notable because it relates to what algorithm is triggering and why it evolved:

> That’s the exact behavior that mother cats display when their kittens go too far. So cute how she tried to lift him by the scruff.

People seem unaware that fairly simple pattern recognition could be responsible.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 17:24:08 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Fox spreading the false claim that a study showed coronavirus can live on plastic or steel *up to* 3 days. What the study actually found is *at least* 3 days. Very different!

And spreading the ridiculous, widespread misinformation that you shouldn't wear masks. Masks are beneficial, including makeshift masks from pillowcases and t-shirts, let alone surgical masks, not just N95 masks.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:18:42 +0000
Notes for *Molecular Biology of the SARS-Coronavirus* curi The CCP Coronavirus
Book appears to be a collection of technical papers. I looked at four.

## Cellular Entry of the SARS Coronavirus: Implications for Transmission, Pathogenicity and Antiviral Strategies

> **Abstract** A novel coronavirus was identified as the causative agent of the lung disease severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The outbreak of SARS in 2002/ 2003 was associated with high morbidity and mortality and sparked international research efforts to develop antiviral strategies.

> *The [SARS] outbreak, which was halted solely by the quarantine of exposed individuals and the use of conventional prevention measures such as surgical masks* [emphasis added]

The paper has tons of technical details. I didn’t read much.

## SARS Coronavirus and Lung Fibrosis

> **Abstract** Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is an acute infectious disease with significant mortality. A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV) has been shown to be the causative agent of SARS. The typical clinical feature associated with SARS is diffuse alveolar damage in lung, and lung fibrosis is evident in patients who died from this disease. The mechanisms by which SARS-CoV infection causes lung fibrosis are not fully understood,

> SARS-CoV belongs to a family of large, positive, single-stranded RNA viruses. The SARS-CoV genome is 29.7 kb in length, and encodes 14 putative open reading frames generating 28 potential proteins, the functions of many of which are not known

> Coronaviruses are known to cause up to 30% of common colds in humans but their infection leads only to lower respiratory tract diseases in livestock and poultry. However, SARS-CoV infection results in severe and even fatal lung disease in humans.

> **Conclusion** Fibrosis usually brings irreversible damage to the lung. Lung fibrosis is widely observed in patients who died from SARS. However, the mechanisms by which SARS-CoV infection leads to lung fibrosis remain poorly understood.

As of 2010, 8 years after SARS, we still didn’t know what all its 28 proteins do or how it causes lung fibrosis. The article details some information about SARS lung fibrosis but says overall it’s poorly understood.

Today, SARS-CoV-2 (Wuhan Coronavirus) is more of an unknown and should be viewed as a serious threat, not a safe or understood thing.

## Host Immune Responses to SARS Coronavirus in Humans

> The risk of SARS reemergence in humans remains high due to the large animal reservoirs of SARS-CoV-like coronavirus and the *genome instability of RNA coronaviruses*. [emphasis added]

If half the world gets SARS-CoV-2, it’ll mutate! That could mean a new strain so the same people can get infected again. (There are already two strains, btw.) It could mean a mutation that increases mortality or infectiousness significantly. Letting it replicate in billions of people is very dangerous due to the potential for the virus to become more harmful. E.g. if SARS-CoV-2 mutated to be as fatal as SARS-CoV, it’d be a huge disaster.

> So far, there has been no consensus regarding whether any treatment, especially the use of steroids and convalescent plasma therapy, could benefit SARS patients

This is in 2010, 8 years after SARS.

> SARS-CoV virus has evolved a way to evade innate antiviral type I interferon responses of host cells in order to prolong viral replication and survival

> Despite the wealth of active scientific research and information, the mechanisms of viral clearance, immune correlates of protection, and the immunopathogenesis of SARS infection remain unclear.

## The Use of Retroviral Pseudotypes for the Measurement of Antibody Responses to SARS Coronavirus

> The coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV) is a relatively new human pathogen for which a vaccine will be urgently required should this virus reemerge and new outbreaks occur.

We got so lucky with SARS 1, eighteen years ago. It gave us a major warning while killing under a thousand people. Some countries, like Taiwan, took it seriously and prepared. The US did not. Now, facing SARS 2, thousands are already dying preventable deaths, and it may end up being millions.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 13:10:26 +0000
Bug-in Andy Dufresne What To Do About Coronavirus If you're not already prepared to bug-out, it's almost certainly a bad idea. Risks are increasing everywhere and rural does not necessarily mean safe, especially for someone with little or no knowledge or history in the area.

The culture in rural areas is less formal / transactional and also more sensitive to and aware of insiders vs. outsiders than in cities. People expect to already know who they're dealing with more of the time, and they won't know you. You'd be an outsider, which may make it significantly harder to get help, supplies, etc. if things do get bad.

I live in a medium sized city (~1 million people) and I expect the crime rate to rise here for the reasons you said. I have both a bug-in and bug-out plan, but for this particular situation I think it's highly unlikely that I'll bug-out.

For theft & riot type concerns that are most relevant to this situation, securing your current house could help a lot.

I have steel security screens like these on all my windows and patio doors:
You can throw rocks, bricks, baseball bats, or molotov cocktails at these without breaking them or the window (a brick house instead of wood helps with long-term surviving the molotovs of course). So they're better than "burglar bars" and also more attractive - they just look like darker than normal window screens covering the whole window, instead of looking like you're living in a jail cell.

I also have dead-bolts + standard out-swing security doors on the entries, like:

Is all this impermiable? Of course not. But it's going to take significant time & make significant noise for anyone of ordinary skill to get through. The physical barriers insure I won't be caught unaware by some random thief in the night or hoodlum with a brick. And if I'm aware, then I'm also prepared to defend myself.

If you haven't already got a gun & can't get one now, at least get some bear spray, a baseball bat & practice with a long kitchen knife on a sandbag. If somebody's working on your outer security door or window screen you can open the inner door or window and spray them with bear spray.

You can get the swing-out security doors at home depot. Depending on your skills and tools you could install them yourself or hire a handyman to do it (nothing special). The window screens have to be installed by someone with the right tools & skills; check for a contractor in your area for those.]]>
Thu, 19 Mar 2020 09:20:27 +0000
N What To Do About Coronavirus
> Why would people want to break into your home or attack you?

If what Alisa says is true, I believe that the risk of break ins / attacks could increase:

> 1. Letting prisoners out of jail

> 2. Ordering police to stop making arrests for theft and burglary

> 3. Preventing firearm purchases (ceasing to issue permits, not maintaining or taking down background check systems, and closing stores that primarily sell firearms for being "non-essential")

My reasoning for this is:

Some people do not care much about e.g. social distancing during the corona pandemic. I assume this would be true re the prisoners that are let out as well.

If a substantial number of these prisoners are robbers / assaulters they might see #2 (police not engaging with theft and burglary) as some kind of green light to do this under lesser risk than during non-corona pandemic.

If a lot of non-criminal people stay at home, robbers and assaulters might see this as a lower risk of civilians being in their way as well.

So on the question "Why would people want to break into your home or attack you?" could be 1) that there are more people that break in / attack ppl out in society than usual, and 2) that those who want to break in / attack ppl see the current situation as a higher chance of getting away with their behaviour.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 23:37:23 +0000
Alisa What To Do About Coronavirus
> Why would people want to break into your home or attack you?

I'm concerned about:

- people robbing houses (electronics, jewelry, etc.)

- home invasions

- criminals who were let out of jail early due to coronavirus

- mob actions like looting and rioting

I'm worried that some of the above are more likely to occur because of the pause in arrests.

> A rural place you don't own sounds sketchy to me. If shit hits the fan, the owners will want it back.

I expect the shit to hit the fan in the city harder than in rural places. So maybe, if I were staying in someone else's house, the owners would be happy to have a dependable person paying them money to stay there.

Buying my own place is also an option, but it's not as easy to do on short notice as finding someone else's house to stay in.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 22:04:50 +0000
Coronavirus Contained: How Taiwan Beat China curi The CCP Coronavirus
Good info. Video info matches the detailed 124 info points I read previously at]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 22:00:28 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> For pregnant severe and critical cases, pregnancy should be terminated preferably with c- section.

> 2.2. After discharge, it is recommended for patients to monitor their own health status in isolation for 14 days, wear a mask, live in well-ventilated single room if possible, reduce close contact with family members, separate dinning, practice hand hygiene and avoid going out.

That’s *after* 2 negative tests, which are part of the discharge criteria.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 21:51:33 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

Some good info and some technical info.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 21:49:00 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Good expert explaining stuff in 6min video.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 21:17:22 +0000
Younger Adults Comprise Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S. curi The CCP Coronavirus
> of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.

> In the C.D.C. report, 20 percent of the hospitalized patients and 12 percent of the intensive care patients were between the ages of 20 and 44, basically spanning the millennial generation.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 21:07:24 +0000
CDC analysis shows coronavirus poses serious risk for younger people curi The CCP Coronavirus
> A new CDC analysis of more than 2,400 cases of COVID-19 that have occurred in the United States in the last month shows that between 1 in 7 and 1 in 5 people between the ages of 20 and 44 in the sample of those who are confirmed cases require hospitalization, a level significantly higher than the hospitalization rates for influenza.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 21:04:54 +0000
Young People Are At Risk curi The CCP Coronavirus
> It seems intuitively obvious that we're seeing exceptionally skewed data re: disproportionate impact of #covid19 on the elderly/ill with regard to both mortality and severity. I think this is likely where a lot of the ill-informed complacency is coming from. [short thread: 1/4]

> Wouldn't the most compromised patients be first to die and first to require hospitalization (faster disease progression)? While younger and healthier folks will tough it out for much longer (either at home or in hospital) before progressing to more advanced stages of disease? 2/4

> It seems far too premature to say that most young folks will fare fine when >97% of all US cases are still active (i.e. have not yet resolved as either deaths or recoveries). [See this site for active cases vs. deaths vs. recovered cases by country:] 3/4

> Am I missing something? Why are so many folks basing risk assessments on data that's 97% incomplete when there seems to be an obvious systematic bias that results from this early snapshot? The fastest-resolved 3% of cases are highly unlikely to mirror the subsequent 97%. 4/4

I said something similar earlier. There are followup tweets with more info and arguments.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 21:01:33 +0000
curi What To Do About Coronavirus
A rural place you don't own sounds sketchy to me. If shit hits the fan, the owners will want it back.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 20:49:50 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Well, one issue is settled: China can indeed innovate! Now everyone else is looking at their tactics. Here's what they did.

The tweet links to four webpages with info.

> Truckers Are Keeping American Supply Chains — and Americans — Alive]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 20:45:10 +0000
Alisa What To Do About Coronavirus
1. Letting prisoners out of jail

2. Ordering police to stop making arrests for theft and burglary

3. Preventing firearm purchases (ceasing to issue permits, not maintaining or taking down background check systems, and closing stores that primarily sell firearms for being "non-essential")

I live in a relatively low-crime district in one of the larger U.S. cities (top 100 by population), but there are high crime districts nearby. I wonder just how bad things could get here and how fast. Maybe it would be smart to rent a house or Airbnb in a small rural town far away from everything, pack up my computers and other valuable stuff, and go there for a while.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 20:04:32 +0000
Notes on Essential Human Virology curi The CCP Coronavirus

Chapter 1-3 notes:

Chapter 4-5 notes:

Chapter 6 notes:

## Chapter 7: Detection and Diagnosis of Viral Infections

Lots of specifics. A general concept is tissue/cell cultures where they get things to grow in controlled circumstances (test tube). Lots of stuff is clear (no color) so they stain it with a color before looking at it with a microscope.

> NAT [Nucleic acid testing] assays rely upon the principle of **polymerase chain reaction (PCR)**, which recapitulates the process of DNA replication in the laboratory by providing the molecules necessary to copy DNA

By putting the right ingredients together and controlling the temperature in a sequence of steps. The sequence is repeated 30-35 times to get the virus to create billions of copies of its DNA. There is a similar procedure for RNA viruses. Then here’s the standard way to detect whether the virus was present:

> The amplified DNA fragment, known as an **amplicon, **can be detected in several different ways, but agarose gel electrophoresis remains the simplest and cheapest method. Agarose gel electrophoresis uses electricity to separate DNA fragments in an agarose gel. The distance traveled by the DNA is based upon the fragment size, with smaller fragments traveling farther in the gel than larger fragments. After separation is complete, the gel is stained with a chemical known as ethidium bromide that intercalates in between the base pairs of the DNA and fluoresces when exposed to UV light. A fluorescent band, therefore, indicates that DNA is present and was amplified by the PCR reaction. Because smaller fragments travel farther through the gel, the relative location of the band can verify the band that was produced is the anticipated size when compared to a known DNA ladder.

They can do this to test for multiple viruses at the same time. You add the ingredients for multiple viruses to replicate to the test tube. And then you see which fluorescent bands show up at the end.

PCR was invented in 1983. There’s a version where they can watch the progress in real time instead of only looking at the results in a separate step after all the replication is done.

There are many other tests besides PCR.

## Chapter 8: Vaccines, Antivirals, and the Beneficial Uses of Viruses

> experts have proposed that viruses are responsible for the deaths of more people over time than all other infectious diseases combined

> the molecular biology revolution that we are currently experiencing has revealed the great potential for viruses to be used for advantageous purposes. The very attributes that make them difficult to overcome may be the properties that allow us to cure genetic diseases or cancer in the not-so-distant future.

Vaccines are a harmless form of a pathogen which stimulates the immune system to make memory T and B cells for that antigen.

> Vaccination is the only way to prevent viral infection upon exposure to a virus. It goes without saying that it is important to avoid malnutrition and extreme stress—factors that affect the proper functioning of the immune system—but studies have shown that vitamins or supplements are not sufficient to consistently prevent infection. Websites that claim otherwise should be carefully scrutinized, because they often misquote scientific data—if they reference it at all—and may have an objective of selling the products they are supporting.

I’m glad they said that but it’s kinda sad that they needed to.

> Smallpox claimed the lives of around 30% of those it infected—a total of over 500 million people in the 20th century alone.

> Attempts to thwart infection trace back to ancient China, where pulverized dried smallpox scabs were inhaled or injected into uninfected persons in a process known as **variolation** (Fig. 8.1A). This led to a milder form of the disease, but the resulting infection still resulted in a 2–3% case fatality rate.

Later people figured out cowpox is safer than smallpox but apparently shares some antigen, so they gave people weakened cowpox material. Then they made a rabies vaccine from the dried spinal cords of rabbits injected with rabies.

Next people learned to grow viruses in chicken eggs instead of using live animals. Now we grow viruses for vaccines in test tubes, except for flu vaccine which we still use eggs for.

> Currently, 14 immunizations are recommended for children under 18; of these, 8 are for viral infections

Vaccines sorta give our immune system practice fighting diseases. They’re like a trial run that prepares our body.

There are three ways we do vaccines. The most common is ** live attenuated virus** which uses a weakened version of the virus where we’ve modified it so that it can’t replicate effectively enough to be a threat. One way to create this kind of vaccine is growing the virus in non-human cells repeatedly until it evolutionarily adapts to them and is no longer good at infecting humans. These vaccines generally require refrigeration.

The second type are ** inactivated virus vaccines**. We kill the virus with high heat or low amounts of formaldehyde. This vaccine generates a weaker immune response so it can be less effective. These vaccines generally do *not* require refrigeration and can be freeze-dried for transportation.

> a major limitation of both vaccine types is that the virus must be able to replicate in our current systems, and there are several clinically important viruses that we are still unable to propagate well in the laboratory

The third type of vaccine is ** recombinant subunit vaccine**. It’s newer and less common.

> it is composed of only certain viral proteins—not the entire virus, as with live attenuated or inactivated vaccines—and it is created using recombinant DNA technology. The challenge is determining which and how many viral proteins should be included in the vaccine formulation to ensure adequate immunity against the virus

> Subunit vaccines do not exclusively have to be created through recombinant protein expression. If the virus is able to be propagated in tissues or cell culture, then chemicals can be used to inactivate the virus, and only certain immunogenic [immune system response causing] viral antigens are isolated and injected as the vaccine. The most common version of the yearly flu vaccine propagates the virus in embryonated eggs, inactivates the virus, and purifies the hemagglutinin (HA) proteins. The yearly flu vaccine contains the HA proteins from at least three different influenza strains, the identity of which are selected each year based upon the viruses that are anticipated to circulate.

New types of vaccines, like DNA vaccines, are being researched and developed.

We’ve talked about vaccines to create *active immunity* – that means if you get infected, your immune system is ready to actively attack the invader. There’s also *passive immunity* where people are injected with antibodies that help protect them, but break down eventually. This is particularly useful for people with problems with their immune system.

**Antivirals** are medicines which interfere with at least one of the seven steps of the viral life cycle. The science and development of antivirals isn’t very far along yet, partly because each antiviral generally targets only one virus or a small number of viruses. An alternative type of medicine tries to boost the immune system instead of fighting the virus directly, but we’re not very good at that yet either. We’re doing better with antibiotics – medicines to fight bacteria.

Viruses have beneficial uses in gene therapy and for some attempts to fight cancer.

## Chapters 9-15

These chapters cover specific topics (cancer and 6 types of viruses). I skipped them. The viruses covered are flu, HIV, hepatitis, herpes, polio and pox.

## Chapter 16: Emerging and Reemerging Viral Diseases

Dense cities and increased travel, especially over long distances, can be disease risks. A disease in one country can now quickly spread to dozens of others due to airplanes. Hygiene and sanitation matter.

Markets with wild animals are much riskier, in terms of disease, than eating farmed meat. Some viruses live in animal populations and occasionally manage to infect humans. Judging by the chart, the most common animal virus reservoirs are rodents, bats and birds. Mosquitos and ticks are also problematic.

*End of book.*]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 11:28:48 +0000
Andy Dufresne Slow the coronavirus spread so we can test way more

- Not trying to add value but rather extract it
- OK with destroying value (injunction against the test) if can't extract value
- OK if people die as a result
- Incredibly poor timing clearly designed to provoke maximum pain and anger
- Gives anti-capitalists (like the article author) a platform for characterizing this as capitalism and then blaming capitalism for it.]]>
Wed, 18 Mar 2020 08:17:47 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus Wed, 18 Mar 2020 00:05:36 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
> But emergency rooms waiting for an influx of gear from the national stockpile may be disappointed. Alex Azar, secretary of HHS, told Congress last month that the stockpile contains 30 million surgical masks and 12 million of the more protective N95 masks. He said there were an additional 5 million N95 masks that may have passed their expiration date.

> That number pales in comparison to what could be needed in a serious outbreak. Government scientists in 2015 estimated that a severe flu outbreak infecting 20 to 30 percent of the population would require at least 1.7 billion of the N95 respirators.

> The national stockpile used to be somewhat more robust. In 2006, Congress provided supplemental funds to add 104 million N95 masks and 52 million surgical masks in an effort to prepare for a flu pandemic. But after the H1N1 influenza outbreak in 2009, which triggered a nationwide shortage of masks and caused a 2- to 3-year backlog orders for the N95 variety, the stockpile distributed about three-quarters of its inventory and didn’t build back the supply.

So they had a stockpile, it worked great during a flu outbreak ... and then they just didn't buy more of the thing that was so useful.

Maybe congress forgot to give them money?

> The stockpile has only received about $600 million per year in appropriations from Congress and that money has to be stretched to cover medicine and supplies for everything from potential anthrax attacks to influenza outbreaks to responses to natural disasters like earthquakes and floods.

N95 masks are under a dollar at normal times. Our government is so bad at spending money! Good at excuses like saying "only" before 6 billion dollars over the last decade, though. From which they managed to have 12 million N95 masks around, not even replenish what they used before, let alone try to build towards what their own scientists estimated was needed.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 23:34:42 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> The New Coronavirus Is More Likely To Be Spread By Pre-Symptomatic People Than Experts Originally Thought

> New research is showing that individuals may not have to be displaying symptoms of COVID-19 to be contagious.

> Of the COVID-19 cases in Singapore that were studied, it is thought that 48 percent of the cases were transmitted by someone who was pre-symptomatic. In Tianjin, China, that number was 62 percent.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 20:10:37 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> Coronavirus: Amazon suspends all warehouse shipments except medical supplies and ‘high-demand’ products

> “We are temporarily prioritising household staples, medical supplies and other high-demand products coming into our fulfilment centres so we can more quickly receive, restock, and ship these products to customers,” an Amazon spokesperson told the Independent.

Tue, 17 Mar 2020 20:02:19 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 17 Mar 2020 19:55:47 +0000 Coronavirus Politics curi The CCP Coronavirus
> The CDC was Fighting Racism and Obesity Instead of Stopping Epidemics

> The CDC should be driven by science, not social justice.

> Coronavirus Will Give President Trump His Biggest Win

> MAGA can use the coronavirus to crush globalism.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 18:20:40 +0000
More Info curi The CCP Coronavirus
I blogged:

[What To Do About Coronavirus](

[Slow the coronavirus spread so we can test way more](

There's a coronavirus channel on the [FI Discord](]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 16:22:57 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus

Arguments that over half of asymptotic infected persons are not infected; actually, the test gave a false positive:

> 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 16:11:23 +0000
Anonymous What To Do About Coronavirus]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 15:15:12 +0000
Anonymous Politics Discussion
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 15:13:35 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
> The most predictable disaster in the history of the human race

> This is what Bill Gates is afraid of.

> In a 1990 paper on "The Anthropology of Infectious Disease," Marcia Inhorn and Peter Brown estimated that infectious diseases "have likely claimed more lives than all wars, noninfectious diseases, and natural disasters put together." Infectious diseases are our oldest, deadliest foe.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 14:27:47 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> FDA moves to boost coronavirus testing capacity by giving states more power

> Maybe Doctors Shouldn't Need the Government's Permission To Fight Coronavirus]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 14:21:00 +0000
Essential Human Virology – ch. 6 notes curi The CCP Coronavirus

Chapter 1-3 notes:

Chapter 4-5 notes:

## Chapter 6: The Immune Response to Viruses

> The immune system is a coordinated system of white blood cells, proteins, and receptors that sense the presence of the virus, control infection, and provide long-term **immunity**, or resistance, against the virus. There are two arms of the immune system, the **innate immune system **and **adaptive immune system **

The innate immune response uses generic defense mechanisms and begins immediately. It’s frequently inadequate to stop an infection, but can slow it down and limit the problem.

The adaptive system customizes a response to a specific virus; this works better but takes time (days or weeks). This sounds like a machine learning algorithm to me. We run (literal) computation to analyze data about the threat and optimize our immune response (within a certain pre-determined, limited design space of responses). Note: This is different than human learning and doesn’t involve general intelligence.

The book doesn’t say it here, but I think we save our custom immune responses for reuse in the future, which is why we generally don’t get infected by the same infection twice (unless it mutates to a new strain). If the same bacteria or virus comes back, our adaptive immune response will crush it immediately before it replicates much, rather than needing days or weeks to adapt again.

> Immune cells within host tissues have a variety of protein receptors known as **pattern recognition receptors **(PRRs) that recognize **pathogen-associated molecular patterns **(PAMPs) from a variety of pathogens, including viruses.

Pattern recognition relates to machine learning and computer systems.

> Although there are several PRRs that recognize bacterial components, there are two main classes of PRRs that recognize viral PAMPs: the Toll-like receptors (TLRs) and RIG-I-like receptors (RLRs).

There are 10 types of TLR, 6 of which detect viruses. RLRs only detect viruses, not bacteria.

> TLRs and RLRs induce the production of **cytokines**, small proteins that are secreted by cells and cause effects within target cells through a **cytokine receptor **

I think cytokines are basically messengers that get other cells to activate and do stuff. Cytokines can “activate proteins within the cell that turn on hundreds of genes” which means turning on hundreds of computer code functions. Some cytokines warn regular cells (not part of the immune system) so that they enable heightened security.

Macrophages are big cells that ingest and digest large particles.

Dendritic cells pick up and process antigens. Antigens are antibody generators – anything that causes an immune response. Antigens are usually proteins.

> **Natural killer cells **(NK cells) are an important innate cell type in the defense against viruses. They possess lytic granules that induce **apoptosis **of virally infected target cells. Apoptosis, also known as programmed cell death, is carried out as an orderly process within cells. The proteins that are delivered to the target cell by NK cells set off a cascade of events that activates enzymes called caspases to fragment DNA within the nucleus of the cell.

Our cells have *orderly* self-destruct mechanisms. It’s not like blowing up a bomb. It’s more like shutting down a factory with a month of notice and getting all the machines (and building itself) disassembled and hauled away.

> The adaptive immune system is composed of white blood cells known as T lymphocytes and B lymphocytes, more often referred to as T cells and B cells. T cells and B cells are located within the lymph nodes or spleen of the body.

There are two types of T cells, killers (“Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes”) and helpers which can activate dendritic cells, macrophages and B cells.

> several viruses have evolved mechanisms to interfere with the presentation of antigen

Natural Killer (NK) cells recognize when certain molecules are missing. So when viruses interfere with antigen presentation, the NK cells can fight that.

> The primary function of B cells is to produce **antibody**, also called **immunoglobulin**.

> The antibodies made by a single B cell are specific to a particular viral antigen. Antibodies circulate in the blood for months following infection. This means that subsequent viral infections during this time will be unsuccessful because the virus will be neutralized by the virus-specific antibodies in circulation within the body. This is why a person doesn’t get the same cold twice in a season.

> Some of these T and B cells form long-lived **memory cells**, however, that remain within the body.

Antibody production stops after a few months but memory cells protect us from repeat infections (of the same type) in the long term. The memory cells are so good at fighting off infections fast that we often don’t get any symptoms or notice anything happened.

Vaccines work by stimulating the body to create memory cells.

> Nearly every facet of the immune system is thwarted by some virus. RNA viruses, with error-prone RNA polymerases, mutate quickly and can escape immunological memory in this fashion, whereas large DNA viruses, such as herpesviruses and poxviruses, have large genomes that encode immune evasion proteins.

> there are over 100 different strains of rhinovirus, so the immune response against the cold you catch one year will not provide immunological memory against a different strain of rhinovirus the following year.

> Some viruses, however, enter a state, known as **latency**, where they no longer replicate within the cell but remain dormant until the immune system is weakened. Viral replication does not occur during latency, and so there are no viral proteins produced to act as antigen and alert the immune system of the infected cell.

> Viruses encode the genes necessary for their replication, but some viruses also encode genes whose protein products interfere with the host immune response]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 14:13:16 +0000
Right Wingers Banned From Food Delivery During Pandemic curi Deplatforming and Fraud
> Uber eats is offering a zero dollar delivery fee during corona virus to people so they don’t have to leave their homes.

> I’m banned on Uber Eats.

> Here is yet another example of big tech deciding who is and isn’t worthy of receiving food during a global pandemic.

> In other words, if you can’t leave your home and you need food delivery, big tech thinks you deserve to starve if they don’t like your political opinions.

> This type of discrimination by big tech companies needs to end. It’s actually criminal to silence and deny people resources and information at this point in time when we are in the middle of a global pandemic and people are being federally ordered to social distance.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 13:47:46 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus
> China Endorses Avigan / Favipiravir For COVID-19 Disease Treatment]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 13:46:34 +0000
Learn From Emergencies curi Eliyahu Goldratt Discussion
People use different policies and rules during an emergency. They change what they do to cope with the crisis.

After an emergency, they should look carefully at what they did during the emergency. Should any of it be used all the time?

Their emergency behavior reveals a lot of their intuition and common sense thinking about what will be effective. It's worth careful review. It often contains some good ideas.


The context of Goldratt's advice was a business facing an emergency like a warehouse flooded, not a coronavirus pandemic. But it applies to a coronavirus pandemic too.

Sometimes people notice a bit of this in a haphazard way. E.g.:

> Maybe we should govern like we're in a pandemic more often:

(Then he gave some political policy bullet points that he likes, which I partly agree with and partly disagree with.)


My notes on Goldratt on emergencies, from my [Eli Goldratt Screencasts]( product:

> People use simple, intuitive solutions to handle emergencies. Whatever worked in an emergency has something good and powerful about it – it’s so good it solved an emergency that the normal system could not handle. So consider using it all the time, even when there is no emergency. You’ll have to consider what harm it will cause to use it on an ongoing basis, and how you can fix that, and if you work that out then you may have invented a great approach.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 12:45:39 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus Tue, 17 Mar 2020 12:26:16 +0000 curi The CCP Coronavirus
The key to is testing. We need to slow the pandemic down, not to wait for a vaccine, but to ramp up testing capacity. Once we test a lot more people, including many people with mild or no symptoms, we'll be able to figure out who to quarantine.

Article explains that testing everyone in a small Italian town was enough to beat the disease.

> Israel tells people not to leave home except for "vital needs and services"

Holy shit that's a long line for costco. Way, way longer than the other pics or videos I've seen.

Interesting tweets on communication difficulties with the public about masks.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 12:10:23 +0000
curi Deplatforming and Fraud

6000 follower account tweets tons of stats, data, news and criticism re 1) Elon Musk 2) coronavirus

I started following them a week ago. Even little guys are often prevented from growing quite early on if they start getting some attention.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 12:08:38 +0000
curi Comments on Prologue of The Great Influenza
> What it came down to was that nearly all investigators believed their own work. If they had found the influenza bacillus in abundance, they believed it caused influenza. If they had not found it, they believed it did not cause influenza.
> Only a very few saw beyond their own work and were willing to contradict themselves.

By contradict themselves, the author means go against their lab results: that is, say that even though they found X in their lab, X doesn't cause flu. That's not really contradiction though because X could have been present in their lab (no errors in lab experiment) and still not cause flu.

X here is "influenza bacillus" which is a bacteria that people thought might cause flu. The guy who found and named it was really confident it caused flu. (He was wrong; a virus causes flu.) So the name is confusing but there was an ongoing debate about whether it caused flu or not. And the quote is saying people who took samples from flu patients and found X thought X caused flu. People who took samples from flu patients and found no X thought X did not cause flu. Almost everyone went by the result at their own lab.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 12:01:52 +0000
curi Second-handedness Examples
> The profession had grown large enough for maneuvering within it. If one listened closely, one could hear: “The appointment of Dr. Opie as the primary key man in this plan would be a fatal mistake.” Or, “Jordan seems at first a rather dazzling possibility, but I am a little afraid…that he is not a man who can be absolutely certain to stand up for his convictions in a tight place.” Or, “Of the names you suggest, I would distinctly prefer Emerson but I fear he would be particularly unacceptable to Russell and Cole, and perhaps to the [Rockefeller] Foundation group in general, as I have the impression that he has been somewhat at outs with them.”]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 11:56:54 +0000
Alisa The CCP Coronavirus
> I think the question of "Why Italy?" is [a] most important question, and it has a simple answer: no reason at all. The only thing that makes Italy different is that the first couple of cases arrived in Italy about 10 days before they arrived in Germany or the U.S. or Canada.]]>
Tue, 17 Mar 2020 08:24:22 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus
Good video with some footage from Italy and some Italian doctors talking.

One thing missing is footage of dead bodies. I think those should be broadcast. Let people see piles of corpses so they take social distancing more seriously. Stop hiding an important part of reality from sight. That's misleading.]]>
Mon, 16 Mar 2020 23:28:28 +0000
Anonymous The CCP Coronavirus ![](



Mon, 16 Mar 2020 22:55:51 +0000
curi The CCP Coronavirus


The guy agreeing with Musk is an idiot. We're not shutting things down based on the current amount of harm. It's based on potential harm in the near future. We've already seen disaster in Italy. We know it can happen here. That's the threat, not the current body count.

Another reply:

> Big fan, Elon, but I'd suggest you visit New York. Infected New Yorkers are being turned away from taking the tests because they're not bedridden enough. The numbers don't match the reality.

I guess he means that infection numbers are wrong because we aren't testing nearly enough people.]]>
Mon, 16 Mar 2020 22:49:06 +0000